Suncor Energy Inc (SU.TO)

This company is emulating what is going on with Exxon (XOM-N), thinking about capital allocation, and doing it smartly. They have reduced shares outstanding at a very nice clip and have increased the dividend at a very nice clip. They figured out the magic touch of what made Exxon such a wonderful company by focusing on return of capital properly. They think 50 years plus on their capital budgeting. This is the type of company that you want to be in for the long term, if you are bullish on oil, which he is. They have 40+ years of oil reserves in the ground.

Oil prices could have some downside here in the next 3-6 months, so you need to be careful how you add to your holdings. If you agree with his long-term view that oil prices should be $80 plus, this is the premium oil sands operator in Canada. Of course if you have an oil price of $50, there is not going to be any more oil sands projects and, in fact, it will be a struggle to breakeven. However, this company’s cash costs are around $30-$40, so it is still making cash. Also, they have the refining and marketing segments, which are taking advantage of the low oil prices. Good balance sheet so they can take advantage of acquisitions. Dividend yield of 3.18%.

Short? This is not the one that he would Short because it is one of the better larger cap names. He is shorting Chevron (CVX-N) because they are free cash flow negative this year and into next. Suncor’s balance sheet is in relatively good shape. Doesn’t see a lot of upside in any of these names for a while, given that oil prices are going to be depressed.

Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T)? Likes this, but he doesn’t own it. Of the 2, he would prefer CNQ. Keystone is probably going to go ahead, which will help CNQ. When natural gas recovers, and he thinks it will, CNQ has enormous exposure.

(A Top Pick Jan 9/14. Down 1.74%.) Had looked pretty good in the summer, but not so good now. When you play with commodities, this is what you have to live with. He likes this over all the other oil companies in Canada because it is vertically integrated. It not only has production, but also has refining and retailing. There are no exploration risks. Yield of 3.14%, which is not only sustainable, but might have room to go up.

Energy space has been decimated, but this one has held up much better than some of the smaller and mid-cap energy players. If you feel you have to have some energy exposure, this company’s oil sand production has operating costs in the mid-$30 and does not have to spend capital to keep its current production rates growing. A very exceptionally strong balance sheet. Also, has midstream and downstream businesses.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T)? He likes both, but his preference would be this one. Both are solid and have low cost of production and will be around. 3.49% dividend yield.

Of the large ones, this one has the best balance sheet. The dividend is probably amongst the safest.

The most defensive name would be SU-T in this environment. He likes ZEO-T, but it will get re-balanced at the end of the week.

Stock vs. Stock. HSE-T vs. SU-T. There is probably more value in HSE-T over SU-T. HSE-T does not have the retail division to the extent that SU-T does. HSE-T is more over sold that SU-T.

Being integrated helps them. The crack spread helps stabilize the earnings. Strong company with good growth prospects and a good balance sheet.

Prefers the higher yielding stocks. He wouldn’t have any qualms about this. Just let a little bit more water go under the bridge. Doesn’t know how they are hedged, so doesn’t know how safe the dividend is, but they have a strong balance sheet.

Make sure you own energy stocks with rock solid balance sheets and low costs of production. They are a huge cash generating machine. They could even raise their dividend here and payout would be very, very low. They are not hurt much by oil pricing coming down and refining margins have been coming down to offset the price of oil When oil goes up, prices at the pump reflect immediately, but when it comes down, the pumps are slow to come down.

Does not see a compelling reason to own the stock in the next few weeks. They will be a leveraged proxy on the price of oil.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Suncor (SU-T)? If you look at their cash flows, both companies are going to be fine at $70 oil. Slashed their growth budgets, but they will make it. He likes both of them.