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Stock Opinions by Craig Porter

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Energy. Oil is now below $50, but there is a chance for it to get back up to $55. The world is fairly well balanced in supply/demand. OPEC seems to be sticking to their cuts and Russia has joined in. The big fear is that the US supply has been growing. Through new technology, the US has been able to get costs down and production is starting to increase. Feels we are in a $45-$60 trading range for the year. We have gone through 2 winters that have been much warmer than normal, and natural gas inventories have started to build up. The good news is that there has been a lot of industrial demand coming for natural gas in North America. LNG has started to pick up in the US. A lot of chemical industries are now using natural gas. Demand has kept pace with the supply.

Unknown
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 10/17. Down 12.18%.) They were thinking of selling themselves, but that didn’t work out. They have great assets, and this is one of the better management teams in finding and developing assets at a low cost.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 10/17. Down 18.88%.) A lot of the smaller intermediate names have suffered. This is a good little company. They did a large equity issue at the end of last year to buy some assets. It is going to take some time to see the results. Great management.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 10/17. Down 10.99%.) Loves the management team. Saskatchewan/Alberta with light oil. This is a dividend paying model where they can grow production 7%-10% a year. Pays about a 3% dividend, but all from the confines of cash flow. They are not taking on more debt to build the company. As the price of oil goes up, they’ll either do more acquisitions or they’ll raise the dividend again. Dividend yield of around 3%.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
COMMENT

Mainly a copper producer with some great assets in north and south America and they are building new mines. He likes copper and where it is going. There have been a number of projects globally where there have been strikes or problems with many companies, so supply has been sort of tempered throughout the year. Global growth is slowly kicking back in, and copper is one of the 1st ones that really moves with the economy.

precious metals
COMMENT

Just announced earnings, which were a little light, but nothing to be concerned about. Canadian exploration companies are just starting to ramp up exploration budgets, and this company will benefit. On a valuation basis, it is a little ahead of some of its smaller competitors. A lot of the service companies should do well as companies start to ramp up their budgets, and this company is a natural beneficiary. Good assets.

oil / gas field services
COMMENT

Just reported and earnings were disappointing. Both zinc and copper were late on production. He likes the company. Longer-term goal, coal prices are still doing well. With higher commodity prices, they’ve been paying down debt quite significantly. A good stock to own if looking for a diversified resource exposure.

Mining
COMMENT

They are planning on spending $100 million in CapX this year. Management is doing a great job. Has a great yield. It’s been really frustrating because there is not a lot of growth in the short term. They have really low decline wells, meaning production doesn’t fall off as quick in some of their mines.

oil / gas
TOP PICK

Great assets and great management. A core holding in a dividend paying portfolio. A low-cost producer of light oil in Saskatchewan and Alberta. They aim to grow production 7%-10% per year. 2.9% dividend yield.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
TOP PICK

They had a mine in Eritrea, which was first gold, then copper, and now a very rich zinc zone. They are currently having some trouble separating the copper and zinc. However, the big asset they bought was Reservoir Minerals with a big high grade copper/gold deposit in Serbia. They slashed their dividend down to 1.61% to redirect proceeds into the next project, which a lot of investors didn’t like. The mine is going to be very profitable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.13.)

precious metals
TOP PICK

Buying a lot more oil sand assets from Shell for $13 billion, and they know the stuff. They built up a lot of projects from the last cycle and cash flow is starting to come this year and next. Dividend yield of 2.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $53.)

oil / gas
N/A

Energy. OPEC is following through on its cuts for a 6-month period, but that has always been a murky issue. He thinks they are really going to try to do it this time. Looking at the world supply/demand balance, we are getting fairly close to being in balance right now. We have had growth in China and the US. Oil consumption is going up, and you are seeing that in agencies like the IEA, which are actually backdating some of their demand.

Unknown
N/A

Metals. Copper had some supply issues because of a possible strike in Chile as well as with some troubles with the Indonesian government that is renegotiating a contract. China just had some good import/export data numbers that were very strong for all materials.

Unknown
N/A

Gold. Thinks there is going to be enough noise throughout the year, which will keep gold elevated and investors interested. There are numerous elections in Europe, which could possibly sway things. As well, there are always middle east concerns.

Unknown
COMMENT

He likes this company. If looking for exposure to copper and zinc, 2 of the better metals out there, this is the play. Good assets in Canada and south America. It had a great year last year, but he still sees about a 20% upside. Production is going to continue to grow. There was a management change last year, but it seems that the new group is doing a good job.

precious metals
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