Shopify Inc.SHOP.TODON'T BUYJun 11, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 02, 2026. Market Open.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
Great story. Valuation has come down since last year. Caught an upgrade this morning. Q2 was great, Q3 looks impressive. Doing everything right. Agentic ambitions. You really have to use the chart, as it's always so pricey.
Trading ~40x PE for 2028, growing 25%. Not that bad (compared to a CRWD or a TSLA). In the realm that you can buy it. Use rough periods like now to add quality names like this.
12-month price target of $171. Great example of an e-commerce company that's harvested the power of agentic AI. Caters to small- and medium-sized companies, who can't do agentic AI themselves. But they can go to SHOP, who can spend the $$ and then recoup it via its massive consumer base.
Excellent liquidity. Negligible debt. Great ROE of 15.5%. High valuation of 104x PE, but it reflects the great growth rate. No dividend.
Delivered a monster quarter, showing its resilience to AI movement. Its software was built to be more friendly to an agentic future. The agentic push has resulted in more businesses being started, and these are all potential customers for SHOP. Susceptible to consumer spending patterns. Great company, best CEO.
Unique business, unique spot. Most recent quarterly results were really strong, and expectation is that will continue. Valuation is very expensive, with very low FCF yield. It's a momentum name -- as long as topline can keep up, valuation will stay strong. Once they start to miss, valuation will come off. Risk/reward is about equal, he'd pass.
Has never owned. 200-day MA just started to roll over, and that's not positive. Price now below 200-day MA. It's always been pricey (9x forward price-to-sales). Tech and general market have been up, but this name's down 4.3% over 12 months. Catering to small-middle businesses makes it riskier vis-a-vis the economy.
If you're already in it, watch to see if it breaks recent lows of support. So many other names out there with much better valuations.