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Shopify Inc.SHOP.TODON'T BUYJul 11, 2024Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
Has never owned. 200-day MA just started to roll over, and that's not positive. Price now below 200-day MA. It's always been pricey (9x forward price-to-sales). Tech and general market have been up, but this name's down 4.3% over 12 months. Catering to small-middle businesses makes it riskier vis-a-vis the economy.
If you're already in it, watch to see if it breaks recent lows of support. So many other names out there with much better valuations.
Still some runway. Tarred with the software brush. A proud Canadian all-star. Buy in 3 tranches: here, ~$105, and ~$100 (that would indicate it's getting to the bottom). If you own now, add on weakness as outlined.
Note: Not in his fund, but in some separately managed accounts.
Right here, right now is a good entry point for a long-term hold. Part of the AI witch-hunt trade. Competitive moat won't be eroded by agentic AI. People don't understand that writing code is not "one and done", not to mention cybersecurity concerns and complex payment systems.
Increasingly catering to larger customers. Continues to innovate and to add value to legacy markets.
Hefty valuation. He tends to look to the US for tech names, that's where the leadership is. 62x forward earnings, 9.4x price to sales. Chart is concerning, as stock price is below 200-day MA, even though that average has been trending higher. Competitive pressure.
Depends on small and medium businesses, which tend to be more affected by any bumps in the economic landscape. Plus, though diversified outside Canada, a lot of revenue comes from Canada, where we see some softening in the economy.