Shopify Inc.SHOP.TOHOLDMay 19, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.
Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.
Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
He took little flyer on this. The opportunity is to not only grow their business through small entrepreneurs starting up a retail website, but also they get to data mine all the transactions that are going on and start to get stickier with their retention of clients. His 1st purchase was a half a position at $83. If it gets to $160, he will automatically Sell half, and then let the rest run. They just did an equity issue today to raise cash for corporate purposes, which drop the stock by about $2 a share. If it started to go too far, too fast, then he would get a little concerned.