Shopify Inc.SHOP.TOBUYApr 19, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.
Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.
Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
One of the most transformational themes is internet commerce, and this is right in the middle of it. They provide the plumbing to all kinds of small and medium-sized web-based retailers, and continue to grow. The pie is growing very rapidly and they have a very dominant space in it. People continue to underestimate the transition we are going through and the way people do business. Ideally you want to get a combination of 2 things in a growth stock. Growth in earnings and revenue, and expansion in the multiples investors are prepared to pay as they continue to execute. This company is doing that. (See Top Picks.)