Shopify Inc.SHOP.TOPARTIAL BUYOct 03, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 13, 2026. Market Open.
Ad revenues are being hurt with subscribers pulling back. Cutting marketing and staff. Will the economy slow, thereby reducing customers shopping online? Trades ~75x forward PE. It's a domino effect of whether it can keep margins up, which keeps cashflow up, which makes earnings rise. If not, there will be hiccups in a stock priced for perfection.
Secular winner. Omnichannel merchandising in a box, with an actively growing POS business. Merchant solutions (~80% of sales) include add-ons to monthly subscriptions. Great second quarter, sales up in 30% range and earnings ~20%. Guidance calls for more of the same.
Increasingly demonstrating that AI is not a disruptor, but a tool. Lots of FCF, buying back lots of shares. In middle innings of the global e-commerce story. Expensive (as always), ~70x PE. Use the charts to buy in.
Hit earlier in the year on the SaaSpocalypse, which was misguided to some degree. Won't get replaced, very agentic. About 14% of total US e-commerce, major player. Always rich, but now at the low end. Spending hasn't increased, yet cashflow is growing. META Muse announcement has lifted stock recently.
The market has seen a massive move towards e-commerce, online shopping, etc. Generally, in the technology world, it is a winner takes all type of proposition. Companies that lead and that can make the investments, generally win. This is trading at a market cap of about $5.5 billion range, and will probably do something like $500 million of revenues next year. A terrific business model. It basically helps small and medium-sized businesses get online. At 10X next year’s sales, would you buy it? If you are a patient growth investor, you can nibble away at this kind of name. The growth rate is upwards of 50% for the next few years. They are the leader in this market.