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TSE:POT

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

DON'T BUY
Demand for fertilizer is being pulled from everywhere. Priced too high for him at this time.
SELL
Overvalued. Can’t see much upside in fertilizer in the short term.
DON'T BUY
Has always been way too expensive. He has a model price of $118.43, a negative 40% differential. Does own Agrium (AGU-T).
SELL
Very well run. Expect their cost structure will probably go up over the next little while. Expect they will start getting competition for Argentina and Brazil.
PARTIAL SELL
Pretty fully valued at this point. Agricultural commodities have had a pretty strong lift. If you own, consider taking a little bit of money off the table.
BUY
Generally quite bullish on the Outlook for fertilizer stocks. US government is set to issue a report on the amount of corn needed to be planted.
BUY
Not particularly expensive. Natural gas not needed to produce potash. Long life reserves. .
COMMENT
There are going to be more acres of agricultural land in the US in 2008 for ethanol purposes. This will require a lot of fertilizer. This is the reason the stock is up.
COMMENT
This is a stock that just doesn't seem to want to quit. If you have long view, you can buy on weakness. There won't be a decrease in need for fertilizer globally.
DON'T BUY
Finds it a bit difficult to be buying it, because it is being pushed somewhat by this strange ethanol and “ need to fertilize more land” subject.
BUY
Soybeans and corn are going to be in huge demand because of the growth of ethanol. This is early days in the agricultural cycle. An excellent play.
HOLD
Formed a long base last summer and then broke out in August. Basically, you want to buy them in the breakout. Looks like a huge elevated base that is rising since November. Expecting it to go much higher.
HOLD
Strong uptrend. Hang on until the charts show otherwise.
DON'T BUY
This goes back to the emerging economy story. India and China have a third of the world's population so there should be a great future for fertilizers. However, after the big move on the stock price, the ROE has started to weaken a bit.
COMMENT
Looking expensive at 27 X earnings. If he was going to be anywhere in commodities, it would be in agricultural. Prefers potash fertilizer over nitrogen fertilizer such as with Agrium (AGU-T).
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