PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Model price is $54.86, and negative differential of 34%.

DON'T BUY

If you believe in the agricultural sector this would be one to own. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T).

DON'T BUY

Because of the ethanol situation, the number of acres of corn being planted in the US will be at a record high. They all need fertilizer. This is why this stock has tripled. Would not buy at this price.

COMMENT

Earnings prospects are going up from $1.70 last year to $2.90/$3.00 this year and maybe even in the mid-$3’s next year. Everything is going very well for a lot of the fertilizer companies. BV is around $13. Just got a big contract. On a multiple basis Agrium (AGU-T) is a lot cheaper, so he prefers Agrium.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

The big fertilizer “ go to” name. A little uncomfortable as to where it's gotten to. Outlook on fertilizer still looks pretty good through next year. Try to buy on weakness. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T).

BUY

Likes it. It's more expensive compared to others in it's sector, but it is actually worth it.

DON'T BUY

Well run company. Very high multiple for a company that is in a commodity type business. Competition is coming in Brazil.

DON'T BUY

Tremendous run-up based on everybody knowing the demand for agriculture products of all kinds is exploding because of need for ethanol. Very expensive.

DON'T BUY

Has been in the sweet spot as plantings have been very strong. Has had a humongous run and is no bargain anymore. Due for a correction.

DON'T BUY

With fertilizer companies, the spring is typically the time you would be selling, not buying. Demand for fertilizer has been explosive in the last while. Too expensive.

DON'T BUY

His model price of $39 is substantially below the current price.

TOP PICK

Are increasing production. Compition in States use gas, which is more expensive.

DON'T BUY

Very expensive. There have been some big run-ups in the agricultural sector. Plantings are starting to come off and maybe you have seen the best for this stock.

BUY

Everyone is expecting a May selloff. He doesn't see it happening. Potash is in the right spot right now. If you like agricultural products, the fact that it's been stronger then expected should tell you something.

HOLD

Cream of the crop. If you own it hold it. (3 to 5 years). Wouldn't buy now.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)