PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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BUY

There is very strong pricing in fertilizer. Most analysts have been raising their expectations on this company. Expect this trend will continue even in a slow economy.

COMMENT

Likes it a lot, but it has gone up a lot. Good play on the Chinese demand for food.

DON'T BUY

Has always been overvalued to him. His model price is $103 which is a negative 36% differential.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 6/05. Up 51%.) This was a seasonal play. Longer term, one of the commodities that’s going to be in short supply is food and this is not a bad place to be.

BUY

The only Canadian potash producer and they have very good asset. Demand from China will be strong.

DON'T BUY

Was a beneficiary of a flooding of a potash mine in Eastern Europe, which took out about 2.5% of the global capacity. Potash prices are expected to skyrocket in 2007 and into 2008. Could possibly get to $9 in earnings in 2008. Took profits and exited.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Thinks it will pause here for a while. Likes the company. The whole agricultural area looks great. Longer term it should do quite well.

HOLD

Analysis indicates the price momentum is still upward from here. Good level of profitability and stock is still undervalued. Rate of profit growth is not as strong as he would like. Wouldn't want to bet on it over the next 2 months.

DON'T BUY

This company has a scarcity value attached to it. Returning pretty reasonable results. Feels a little momentuming to him, because of the speed with which it took off.

DON'T BUY

The question from the caller was if he should Short the stock. A: Brian never shorts stocks. His model price is $94.21 which is a negative 26% differential.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) have their lows in June and peak at the end of December. You can continue to hold or buy on weakness.

DON'T BUY

Trades at about 21 X earnings. They supply of a lot of their potash to Brazil and Rio Tinto is going to open a mine in Argentina, which will create competition. Too expensive.

TOP PICK

Down 15% over the last year. Partly because of lower potash shipments in a standoff with China. Now settled at $25 a tonne higher. Long life, low-cost reserves. Higher demand for fertilisers from emerging countries gives a longer-term growth story. Good price.

DON'T BUY

Not a huge believer in this company. Probably won't hurt you too much at this price but can't see a lot of upside either.

DON'T BUY

Would avoid this one for the time being.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)