PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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173 watching

BUY

Volatility can be very high but the recent trend seems positive. Longer-term growth in demand in higher protein diets for emerging markets remains. Largest producer of the most cost effective fertilizer.

COMMENT

Fertilizer is still a little early. Volatility is very high right now which is why he uses a double option overlay. He doesn't know which way they are going to go. He is anticipating it will trade in a band. In the US it is trading at about $76. He wrote a $90 Call and a Put at $70. If it goes down through $70 he'll have to buy the stock.

WAIT

Demand for agricultural products is quite strong. Cost structure is coming down in some of their areas. Found a bottom in December and seems to be forming a base. Likes the company technically. Would wait until it hits $91 before buying. If you own and it drops below $90, exit. If it broke through $105 it could potentially have a huge move.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) He is a long-term bull on this commodity. If you have a 2-year horizon, this is near the bottom of the cycle.

BUY

Shares have fallen in the last 2 days because one of their competitors in Russia announced a deal with Brazil to sell potash at lower prices. However, this contract is only for 3 months. Agriculture is a great place to be.

COMMENT

Had changed their practices on his company's recommendations so they now qualify for his fund.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) The agro-food sector is a good one to be in. Trail a Stop behind.

BUY

Agricultural pendulum swung too far on the upside. When people lost faith in the story, it went too far down. Believes in the Asian story in the long run 3 to 5 years.

STRONG BUY

The 2 potash companies he likes are Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T). Likes both of them long haul. There is no question that China and India are going to need potash fertilizer. It is very clear that most of the small start-up companies will never be able to finance a new mine.

TOP PICK

Potash and uranium are probably the 2 commodities that have held in really well during this huge decline. Fertilizer demand got really weak, so 1st quarter it is going to be poor. Premier world-class growth stock that you are buying for less than 8X earnings.

BUY

The advantage with a food stocks is that there is not the stockpiling issue as there is with other commodities. Demand will continue to be fair.

BUY

Short term, there is a fair amount of fertilizer floating around as farmers are holding off purchases. Believes fertilizer companies are well positioned for the next couple of years. (See Top Picks.)

BUY

His Fair Market Value is $721 so you would think that from a value point of view it is awesome. Fertilizer prices are unlikely to prevail, as farmers can't afford it. Has come down to a very nice support and is in a nice uptrend.

BUY

Had a very difficult year in 2009 and was probably oversold. He recently purchased this. Very strong cash flow.

COMMENT

Signs of life with trading activity. Has support at $80. If it goes above $100, there is a good chance it could hit $140. (See Top Picks.)

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)