PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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PARTIAL BUY

Commodity cyclical. Low valuation at 4 X earnings. One of the first commodities to recover will be agriculture. Great balance sheet. A place you can start putting your more aggressive portfolio. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

Stock went up with the price of corn and when corn came down, the stock fell too. They are curtailing potash production and it looks like they are going to have to drop prices. Even though it looks cheap, wait.

DON'T BUY

Announced some reduced guidance for the balance of 08 and into 2009. A commodity play and will be governed by the underlying commodity. A tough call to make on the commodity price. Prefers Agrium (AGU-T). You have to believe the recovery is going to take hold. If credit remains tight and farmers can't buy fertilizer, there could be further weakness.

WEAK BUY

Hard company to figure out. Problem is what the contracts are being set at and what they are getting paid for on fertilizer. Fertilizer is a very important commodity in that it doubles the yield. Farmers are finding it difficult to get credit to buy. Could go lower.

TOP PICK

His model price is $160. An 88% upside.

BUY

Stock sold off because of global slowdown and concerns on corn prices and the whole agriculture boom in China and India. Was a favourite with some of the big US hedge funds, which decided to get out. Oversold. Company feels they can earn $15/$18 US next year so it is trading at extremely low multiples.

HOLD

One of those that is suffering from huge popularity. Earnings forecasts and projections are great. Trading at an extremely low price/earnings ratio. Should do fine in the longer-term. Stock is dropping because of tax loss selling. Soon as this is out of the way, it will be a good one to Buy. Watch for it to bottom.

SELL

(Market Call Minute.)

DON'T BUY

You don't know where it is going to hit its bottom. Don't try to bottom fish.

DON'T BUY

Sold his holdings this summer. Earnings estimates are being reduced. There appears to be some inventory build taking place. Some concerns about competing products coming out of China.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.)

TOP PICK

Trading at 5 X earnings, which is darn cheap. One of the few commodities whose price has not broken.

DON'T BUY

A truly great, very unique company however, it has had its run and you have to wait at least until the seasons of next year and an improvement in the situation of the world economics.

BUY

Out of all the different fertilizer companies, this one has actually hung in okay. Not a bad entry point. This is a range bound market so she would consider this as a trading stock, not a buy and hold.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Well-capitalized so no risk of them having to go to the banks and beg. Generating tons of free cash flow. Potash prices are in the $800/$900 a ton. They stand to make a tremendous amount of money. Would be interested if it backed off a bit.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)