PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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BUY ON WEAKNESS

The use of fertilizer is down substantially. Still haven't got a settlement on China and India for contract prices. They are cutting production, which impacts earnings. Thinks it can trade well below $100. Try to buy in the $90-$95 area.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 3/08. Down 49.36%. Has moved to a different investment firm.) He could see this dropping into the $90's and if that happened he would be buying it. Longer term, supply/demand fundamentals are very good.

TOP PICK

The trick here is if you can look through the value. This year is going to be challenging and the rest of this year is not going to be very good. Farmers have been cautious on purchases of fertilizer and Chinese have been playing hardball. Should reach $150 US in a year or two.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute.)

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) There will be some short-term weakness in their financials but he would Buy the stock.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 23/08. Down 35.37%.) Got crucified so he sold his holdings. Not screening as well as other things so he is not buying yet.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Thinks that prices are ahead of themselves but it is on his radar. On a decent selloff here be looking at buying either Agrium (AGU-T) or Potash (POT-T).

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Buy Agium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) near the end of June for a seasonal play through to the end of December. Might have started a little bit early this year because grain prices are starting to move higher meaning farmers are making more money. Has worked 8 out of 10 years but didn’t work last year. Looking for a pullback in June.

HOLD

Would let it form a bit of a base.

BUY

In the short term demand for fertilizers has been very weak but expect renewed demands for them come fall. Good long-term stock. A cheaper alternative would be Mosaic (MOS-N) and potentially provides a little more upside.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Great company and wonderful commodity. Became very overpriced and pulled back with the economy. One way you can play agriculture. Prefers Viterra (VT-T), which is more stable. A little bit pricey and would like to see a pullback 15% or so. (See Top Picks.)

COMMENT

Prefers Agrium (AGU-T) but owns both. Agrium is a little more diversified.

COMMENT

Everything hinges on the Chinese contract negotiations. Have announced they are cutting down production by almost 400,000,000 tons. If you believe in the resource play it's a great leverage.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) There has been a huge capital appreciation already on this. Farmers can only avoid buying fertilizer for one year.

DON'T BUY

An interesting way of playing the notion that the emerging markets are going to need to be fed. Incredibly volatile. Would prefer Agrium (AGU-T).

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