PotashCorp (POT.TO)

Doesn’t have too much left of this. Wouldn’t be chasing it. He would definitely want to see the implications of the changes with this company and Russia. You are going to need 1 or 2 quarters before we get some definition on visibility of earnings.

Russians have decided to opt out of the potash cartel because they need the cash so they are going to flood the market as much is they can. When demand comes back, he is sure they will want higher prices just like everybody else. Expects he will buy more of this in the future. Increased their dividend twice this year.

Likes fertilizer area but he prefers AGU-T because of broader product base and a good foothold in Australia. Has depended on cartel to keep prices high. There is a lot of potash coming on production around the world.

The price has gone down so much. They are talking about the decoupling in Russia of the companies there. This is not cheap enough for him yet. Price could turn up but for him, it is still far too expensive.

Around June to September these stocks do very well, but not this year. Looking Doggy. Broke key support, established downward trend, is below 20 day moving average. No reason to own this puppy. Buy again only if the technicals line up again.

(Market Call Minute) Doesn’t like the sector, grains are under pressure, fertilizer use is a little weak.

He would be more prone to wait until the dust settles to see the direction as to which way the supply/demand curve is going to look.

(3 Top Picks have a theme of needing some shareholder activism because there is so much value in some of the stocks they are going to be recognized and will be forced into some changes.) There have been dramatic changes in the industry and it is time for this company to take dramatic steps. First of all they have to cut down on the capital expenditures big time. Secondly, he would like to see them increase the dividend and stop the share buyback. It owns close to $6 billion of other publicly traded companies. 4.9% yield.

Finest fertilizer company on the planet. Wait for it to find the bottom. If you are technically inclined, you might use technical analysis. Turmoil in the potash market, as a consequence of the Russians pulling out of the potash cartel is going leave the potash market in turmoil. He would not be playing in this game for the next 6 weeks.

This is a very dangerous time to buy this stock. Being able to predict when a stock is going up or down is the key to making money. Investors that are holding the shares are in a bit of a tough spot. It’s always tough to Sell at a loss. Any time you are in a commodity stock, the biggest driver is the commodity itself. Even at these levels, you are still looking at a 10% annual growth rate so it is very reasonable that there could be more downside.

Sold the Jan 44 Puts naked for a credit of $4.60. Because of the meltdown in the stocks today, that Put is now trading at $12.15 giving a net loss of $7.55. What should he do? You have to start by asking yourself if you owned the stock, what would you do? If you are uncomfortable owning the stock right now, he would buy the Put back and close it out. He feels that a 25% decline in this company is probably the worst case scenario. It has come back a little bit. He would leave it and see if it doesn’t get back up a little bit further.

There is a down trend. Very subject to seasonality. Mosaic set the tone for this a couple of weeks ago. He picked it up recently. Risk reward is in his favour. Early October is the end of the season.

This has been a story of the fertilizers cycle turning. The long-term story is there but it just can’t seem to get out of its own way. Just reported earnings and cut their guidance. He is hoping the fundamentals of fertilizer are bottoming. Agrium (AGU-T) would be a better play.

Short-term trading vehicle? Under $40, this is pretty attractive. You may not get an increase over 3 months; it might take till the end of the year. The last half of the year will be a fair bit better. We seem to be entering a period of seasonal strength, which might help to underpin things and will manifest itself better in the 3^rd and 4^th quarter earnings.

May miss on the next quarter. Corn prices are very weak and are a lead indicator.