PotashCorp (POT.TO)

(Top Pick Apr 10/12, Up 2.80%) It traded up and AGU weakened over time. There is a lot of production coming on in potash in the next couple of years. The reality is that farmers will skip potash in favour of nitrogen some years. Doesn’t see why you need to be here.

Owns Potash because the stock price came so low and he feels there is value there. Dividend increased today, and will increase in the future.

There are a couple of problems. You have planted this year’s crop right to the fence post and we are expecting record crops, which will push prices down including potash. There is a large supply of potash and the price may not stay up here. Nat gas prices are going higher so increased input costs. Entry point is low 80s.

Probably nitrogen is going to have a bad quarter. Long term he owns some, but prefers another which is a TOP PICK tonight.

(Market Call Minute) Prefers AGU but watching this to potentially add because potash prices are stabilizing.

Does not have $50 in it in the short term. Mid-$40s for the next year. There is weakening demand in some places and stronger in others. Not a growth story in the next couple of years. Trading range. Mid-$30s buy, Mid-$40s sell.

Has this rated as an “outperform” with a $52 target on it. This is a good entry point for it.

Came out with numbers today that were pretty good. The longer term view is that as the world grows you will need more and more of this. It is in good shape here and you could own it here.

Over 100 years supply of potash so this is a very good long-term holding. Doesn’t see a lot of either positive or negative catalysts. Short this stock because he is a lot more positive on one of its rivals, Mosaic (MOS-N), which has a very similar structure in terms of its potash and phosphate exposure. 62% of Mosaic is owned by Cargill and 30% of this company is owned by the Cargill family and about 10% of this will be available on the market in May. He thinks the company will buy back those shares.

Doesn’t expect it will do much this year. Thinks it is being held back by some of the negotiations with the Israeli Potash where there is a lot of political uncertainty. If it were approved, they would have to do a major equity issue, which will continue to provide some overhang on the stock.

(A Top Pick April 10/12. Down 5.37%.) Had ramped up quite a bit and was trading at a relatively strong multiple compared to its peers so he sold his holdings.

Likes this and it is at a price level where he would be comfortable buying it. Potash prices have been under pressure recently with China doing a deal at $400 a ton and India doing a recent deal at $425 a ton but he feels prices are stabilized at these levels.

He has a sense that there is a “not so great” quarter coming but if you look out a little bit the numbers do look better in the back half of this year and in 2013 with the numbers reaching $45.

Finds seasonal strength into the summer time. From June to Sept. The long term trend is not too favorable. You want to stay away from it. It is under-performing the market. Accumulate in the summer time.

Long-term this is a great story as are other fertilizers and seed companies. There will always be a need by developing nations. In the short term, this company is facing two negatives. There is talk of them taking over ICL, a major Israeli company and the fear is they are going to pay too much for it through a major equity issue, which would be dilutive. Also, potash prices have been slipping for the past several months but are showing signs of firming. If he sees it below $40, he’ll probably pounce on it.