
TSE:PGF
Turnaround of the company started a couple of years ago when new management started to clean up the balance sheet and transition the company to something more focused. To that extent, they are making a lot of progress. For him, it is a little bit early as he thinks the market got ahead of itself in presuming it would be successful. Leverage is still pretty high. He is taking a wait-and-see attitude. As long as gas prices continue to run and the oil price stays high, they’ll probably make it through.
Sold his holdings towards the end of last year. It is still on his Watch List and he can see how it could go up quite a bit. Pays a good dividend. Thinks the financials are going to get better as they continue to sell off things. Still have a lot of things in progress which will cost a lot of money to get them up and running and this will show up in 2015-2016.
In an interesting position. Have a lot of legacy assets that are sort of stable to slightly declining as well as an oil sands project, which they are in the process of ramping up. Pilots have gone very well. On time and on budget in terms of bringing the project forward. Once they get this up and running, it will generate a fairly substantial amount of cash flow. Her concern is that, given the valuation, it is still a big project. In order for them to do phase 2 of Lindbergh, it is going to require a fairly substantial amount of cash.
Reported better-than-expected production numbers for Q4. Also spent less money than expected. Given some pretty good guidance on their oil sands assets production. However, given the oil prices, he expects it will have a much harder time giving the same kind of gains. If you have other ideas that you think are better, it is not a bad idea to switch. Biggest risk here is that any time a company is betting a big part of their future on one project, and it is a big percentage of their value, it always brings in inherent risks. (See Top Picks.)
Fairly decent high dividend paying Canadian energy company. This is always compared to Enerplus (ERF-T), which he prefers, who are on to some higher ROI type properties and are executing better.