TSE:PGF

Pengrowth Energy (PGF.TO)

0.06
-0.00 (0.00%)
as of Jan 9, 2020, 9:00:00 pm Market Open.
120 watching
0
HOLD

Fairly decent high dividend paying Canadian energy company. This is always compared to Enerplus (ERF-T), which he prefers, who are on to some higher ROI type properties and are executing better.

WEAK BUY

Doesn’t mind it. Oil weighted. If it went back to $110 he would buy it. Lindbergh project will come online and propel the company. More comfortable with dividend payers.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) People are getting all excited about them turning its stories around. Doesn’t have any major strategic asset. Recovering from the hangover of being a big dividend payer.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 1/13. Up 27.94%.) The Lindbergh play is exceptional. There will be a yield compression, and the stock will go higher. Don’t rule out dividend increases when Lindbergh comes into full production.

DON'T BUY

Not a fan, given current valuation. Current project is a thermal oil sand project. These projects can have good pilot results and then bad long term results. He worries about sustainability of the dividend. There are much better names to be invested in.

COMMENT

Likes this company. Owns a little bit, primarily just for the dividend. Still gets to see production out of Lindbergh over the next 12-15 months. Has a little more risk in the story from an execution standpoint. Prefers something like Whitecap Resources (WCP-T) at this point.

HOLD

Turnaround of the company started a couple of years ago when new management started to clean up the balance sheet and transition the company to something more focused. To that extent, they are making a lot of progress. For him, it is a little bit early as he thinks the market got ahead of itself in presuming it would be successful. Leverage is still pretty high. He is taking a wait-and-see attitude. As long as gas prices continue to run and the oil price stays high, they’ll probably make it through.

BUY

A turn-around situation and they did a good job of it. Got rid of leverage. The dividend is safe now. He has PWT-T.

DON'T BUY

New oil field coming in 2015, but for the remainder of this year there is no production growth and they are paying a dividend as well as having increasing debt. Prefers other names that pay a sustainable yield or have production growth.

HOLD

Probably alright to hold here. Not a favourite name. Assets are a little inferior to some of the others. Caught in the middle from a size standpoint. The market was expecting more from today’s numbers, resulting in a 6% loss on the stock price.

WEAK BUY

If you are patient for the next few years, they are in the process of constructing Greenfields oil facility. They have done an excellent job of containing costs and ultimately it will be very successful. They are committed to paying the dividend but in his opinion it is unsustainable.

COMMENT

Sold his holdings towards the end of last year. It is still on his Watch List and he can see how it could go up quite a bit. Pays a good dividend. Thinks the financials are going to get better as they continue to sell off things. Still have a lot of things in progress which will cost a lot of money to get them up and running and this will show up in 2015-2016.

DON'T BUY

In an interesting position. Have a lot of legacy assets that are sort of stable to slightly declining as well as an oil sands project, which they are in the process of ramping up. Pilots have gone very well. On time and on budget in terms of bringing the project forward. Once they get this up and running, it will generate a fairly substantial amount of cash flow. Her concern is that, given the valuation, it is still a big project. In order for them to do phase 2 of Lindbergh, it is going to require a fairly substantial amount of cash.

COMMENT

Reported better-than-expected production numbers for Q4. Also spent less money than expected. Given some pretty good guidance on their oil sands assets production. However, given the oil prices, he expects it will have a much harder time giving the same kind of gains. If you have other ideas that you think are better, it is not a bad idea to switch. Biggest risk here is that any time a company is betting a big part of their future on one project, and it is a big percentage of their value, it always brings in inherent risks. (See Top Picks.)

BUY

The downtrend line has been violated so now we have a move to the upside. Thinks it’s okay. 7.3% yield makes him nervous. Technically it is okay. He would check the payout ratio, though.

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