Pengrowth Energy (PGF.TO)

It is long gone. They are in the process of moving from an income trust to the oil sands side and doing it very successfully. However, he is negative on anything to do with the oil sands. The future is not particularly bright for them. Move your money to CPG-T.

Their debt level is a little bit high in this commodity price environment. They have a large SAG-D project. There is a bit of a binary outcome here. It could help them out a lot. She would be cautious here. There is concern about the sustainability of the dividend.

The dividend is pretty sustainable this year. Payout ratio is around 92% and we are seeing about 96% next year. There are new pipelines being built in the area, which is probably going to give them better take away capacity. The company has held up really well through this energy problem. Trading around 7X versus its peers at around 10X. The only thing holding him back from buying is that their debt level is way too high, but he doesn’t see it going higher next year.

(Market Call Minute.) In the news this week with the ramp up of Lindberg, which is already at capacity of about 16,000 BOE’s a day. A name that looks like it is going to get more interesting in the next couple of years.

He does not see a lot of growth in the space. He would be cautious on most of the names. You could start to nibble slowly but better to wait 4-5 months and then nibble.

Dividend is sustainable, and they have just reported pretty good numbers.

The up-trend was broken mid-2014 and took a long drop to the low $3 area. It’s a little early to tell if this is basing. Also, if you are looking for the dividend, check the balance sheet to see if it can be maintained.

This is one of those companies that is managing through the storm. He feels good about the dividend right now. His company has it is a Sector Outperform with a target of $6.

This one is a hold. The cut in the dividend was a wise move. They are moving from a broad based oil company into the oil sands. They have good properties. It has a reasonable long term prospect. It is not going to be a super grower, however. Their production looks like it will be stable for the next year. He would not be buying right here.

Has a higher debt load then he would normally buy into, but they have hedged 55% of their oil at $94 for the next few years. Hedged 50% of their gas at about 10% higher than what gas goes for now. Capital spending should go way down next year because the Lindberg project is pretty much up and running to some degree, and is supposed to be producing at a real capacity, something meaningful in the 1^st quarter of 2015. Dividend of 12.63% is a high payout ratio, and it is possible it could get cut, but management says it is not going to happen. His target price is $15 and change.

His company still has this with the $7 target. He would imagine this is because of where their production facilities are. About 60% gas. He would be cautious because the $7 target seems a little bit high.

Have really improved their metrics a lot and have done a good job executing their new Lindberg assets, which should be coming on in 2015. Management should get marks for doing everything right, but unfortunately oil has come down a lot. Payout ratio for 2015 is 140%. Debt to cash flow is too high at $75 oil. However, this is one that he might speculate on.

The big factor with this company is the Lindbergh project, which is expected to start coming on in the near future. The success of that is largely going to determine what happens with this company. They have had higher production at their Cardium assets and the old Garrington area has done little bit better. They've hedged 83% of their 2015 production at $93-$94.50, and he feels that will stand them in good stead. Has a reasonably good chance of appreciation from here. A 10.5% dividend yield and doesn't think they will review their dividend policy until some time next year, if conditions don't improve a lot.

Sold a lot of assets, and raised about $1 billion to develop properties in 2015. They are executing very well on their Lindbergh asset. Signed a deal with Husky (HSE-T), so they will get access to market when Lindbergh is up and running. The bad news is, since oil was at $80 and natural gas at $2.50, debt to cash flow does get larger to 3.1 from 2.9. Payout ratio is not horrible, but 146% estimated versus 145% for the group. Expect you will see 15% cash flow growth over the next few years. If we have $80 oil, you can keep this. Probably fine at these levels.

(Market Call Minute.) Generally doing things better than they have in the past. Sees this as a little more sleepy in the oil patch.