Pengrowth Energy (PGF.TO)

(Market Call Minute.) Seems to have improving fundamentals recently and is one that he would look at with its current price. Have made great improvements operationally.

Has been out of this name for at least a couple of years. New management team in 2009 and she liked what they did but sold it when the market didn’t like what they were doing. It seems they are really turning the company around. Debt level is coming down. All of their eggs are going into the Lindberg (?) pilot project. Once they get the very high upfront capital costs off, it will be a long life oil asset that will spinoff a lot of cash flow for many, many years to come. Perfect for a dividend yielding company like this. She’ll probably give them another quarter or 3 to see how they do.

(A Top Pick Nov 6/12. Up 29.88%.) The thesis is improving. It is getting better but still has some metrics that are not good in terms of debt to cash flow and payout ratio. He would be in other names. 7% yield.

It is not cheap enough for him to want to buy it. The dividend is not high enough. They are transitioning to a thermal oil sands producer. During that time their production growth rate will go negative. So you are clipping a coupon rate of 7% but there are others with growing production. The dividend is safe but he would wait a year.

(A Top Pick Aug 1/13. Up 8.24%.) CEO has done everything he has said he would do. Sold some assets and raised some capital to get after the Lindbergh play, which is ultimately a 50,000 barrels a day project. 7.2% yield.

Hasn’t done as well as he would have liked. Thought they would have gotten in front of their debt problems earlier than they did. Trading at a below market multiple of about 5.2 versus its peers of 8.4. Debt levels are improving, but are still pretty big. Cash flow is 2.1X and next year should be even bigger. Effective payout ratio, which is a real sustainability metric, is still quite high when you consider Lindberg, but when you take this out, it is still a little higher than average. Their thesis of selling non-core assets to grow Lindberg makes sense for them and allows them to focus. He would allocate new money to Enerplus (ERF-T) rather than this one. (See Top Picks.)

(Market Call Minute.) Management team is still struggling, trying to get a hold on costs. Have some big projects, which is going to eat a lot of capital getting there.

Expects the stock will be stuck in a trading range. Nothing really to get excited about other than test results from their SAGD asset. This is a key asset for the company that will be first steaming at the end of 2014 with production in 2015. There is a declining production on per share growth.

(Market Call Minute) 8% yield is solid.

Cut their dividend a while ago and brought in new management. The new management cut back on projects and is trying to improve the quality of the assets they have. Recently sold some non-core assets and raised a lot of cash. Performance is picking up and he feels the dividend is safe.

Held for a long time. Really liked change in management. The issue was how to fund the development of the steam flood project. Dividend was trimmed a while back. 8% to sit and wait.

(Market Call Minute.) He does not believe in the management’s strategy of putting all their eggs in an oil sands development basket and selling assets to finance it.

Have had some good news recently around Lindberg (?) and it’s starting to get some regulatory approval to move forward. It is really a bet on their oil sands project. Had NAL assets which they have been slowly selling down. A much de-risked story but just doesn’t have the best asset suite. If you own, consider tax loss selling.

Certainly has been less than his best stock holding but they have held their dividend. Thinks the asset base is okay. Changing their direction and heading more towards oil sands production. If we were heading into another dip in this sector, he would consider taking his losses and buying back later.

(Market Call Minute) dependant on asset divestitures so it is a hold to a sell.