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Stockchase Opinions

Michael SprungNovelis Inc. (bought by Hindalco an Indian based compaNVL.TOHOLDOct 11, 2005

This was spun out from Alcan (AL-T) a while and the market just hasn't warmed up to it and yet they're not in a bad business. Have good operations in North America and Europe. If he's right on the future of materials, this should do quite well going forward.
$23.97

Stock price when the opinion was issued

metal fabricators
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BUY
A lot of takeover speculation on this. When you look at the assets and the depth of the company, you can start to get some pretty big numbers.
SELL
Hasn't found a bottom yet. A lot of people are jettisoning this position on tax loss selling. Only has one estimate, so take his comments with a grain of salt. His model price is right around the current price.
TOP PICK
A stock that's not that well understood. Covered primarily by mining analysts as it was a spinoff from Alcan (AL-T). Not really a mining company and has no commodity price risk. Basically a manufacturing company. Just announced they are going to be adding a freight rider increase on their pricing.
DON'T BUY
Not bullish on global economic prospects.
DON'T BUY
When you get bad news in the market, it can generally stay for some time. Shareholders that got in at higher prices are looking for their price in order to exit.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 9.05. Down 3.5%.) Had some caps in their contracts as to how much of the aluminum price they could pass on. That is a major concern.
TRADE
The manufacturing can side of aluminum. A spin off from Alcan (AL-T). Less cyclical so would prefer this one at today's prices. However, Alcan has some recovery coming, so would prefer it now.
BUY
Likes this along with Alcan (AL-T).
DON'T BUY
Q: Preference between Alcan (AL-T) and this company? A: Prefers the metal producer Alcan over the packager. Alcan, relying on aluminum prices, can be more volatile, but he's a believer in aluminum prices.
BUY
Acquired stock when Alcan (AL-T) spun this off and will be buying more of it. A world leader in the aluminum package goods area.
TOP PICK
Cash flow before capital expenditures relative to debt is 4 X cash flow. Taking away capital expenditures, interest and taxes, free cash flow is over $200 million a year. Trading at 13 X earnings while its peers are at 15/16 X earnings.
DON'T BUY
He valued the break out stock and it's very expensive. At about 3.5 X Book Value which is a lot of money for a cyclical stock.
DON'T BUY
Sold their position shortly after the spinout. Had owned Alcan as a play on the aluminum commodity and weren't interested in the rolled product business. A good business, but the debt levels looked fairly high. Valuation looks attractive. Will probably be bit of an orphan stock in regards to street coverage.
HOLD
Feels the initial reaction has been quite negative. A little bit levered and the balance sheet is a little bit worse than she would normally invest in. Yield is good. I f you continue to hold for the next 6/9 months, you'll probably recieve a better price for it.