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Opinions Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
NVIDIA CorporationNVDACOMMENTAug 26, 2024
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 18, 2026. Market Open.
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From a value point of view, NVDA sticks out as cheaper (~22x PE) in the space. But he's been reducing his exposure to the sector. The capex isn't slowing down anytime soon. When the music stops on this, you have to be really wary. Cyclical. Very cautious on semis.
Continues to buy for new clients (he uses RSI to pinpoint an entry point that will deliver value). Beneficiary of the AI capex tailwind. For him, remains the toll road of the AI buildout.
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Premium contentWe reiterate NVDA as a TOP PICK. Whether it is robotics, self-driving vehicles or new data centres, their chips are central to growth in these and many other sectors. It trades at 37x earnings and supports an amazing ROE of 97%. Cash reserves are at the highest levels in at least 5 years and the company continues to aggressively buy back shares. We continue to recommend a stop at $182, looking to achieve $263 -- upside potential of 28%. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $303.71)
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported 1.87 USD per share, beating the 1.75 USD estimate by 6.52%. Revenue for the same period reached 81.61 B USD, despite the estimate of 78.91 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 2.03 USD in earnings per share and 90.21 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 126% in the past 24h.
Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.
Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.
He always says buy this, don't trade it. They just delivered another set of stunning numbers: revenue growing 85% year over year, revenue beating with most of their growth coming from their core data centre business, hyperscaler revenues up 115% YOY while other areas grew 74% YOY, while gross margins were in line, free cash flow beat, and announced an $80 billion share buyback. They raised guidance, too. But the stock is so big, it's hard to surprised investors, so the stock is flat after hours.
Likes it fundamentally, but a lot of things are overbought at this point. Be cautious how you step in. Will do well over next 12-24 months. Relatively cheap compared to other growth stories out there. The "arms dealer" of the AI buildout. Like the "picks & shovels" of the AI "gold rush". An ecosystem of hardware and software.
Will benefit from the major capex spend by hyperscalers. Earnings growth forecast for next few years is 45% a year. PEG ratio ~0.6x, very attractive valuation. Yield is 0.02%.
Stan WongPremium contentNVDA just inked a $5.5 billion partnership with an Australian based neocloud company that will provide integrated cloud access and data center access, including renewable electricity. It trades at 48x earnings and supports an astounding 97% ROE. We recommend trailing up the stop (from $165) to $182, looking to achieve $275 -- 16% upside potential. Yield 0%
(Analysts’ price target is $271.03)
Lots to talk about regarding quantum computing, as it's one of the main foundational picks & shovels. Has come out with quantum platform for developers. Will really excel in the quantum space. His price target is $273. Yield is 0.02%.
(Analysts’ price target is $270.04)
Kim BoltonWhat we heard from Alphabet and TPUs and Amazon with Trainium (their own AI chips) flies in the face of Nvidia being the stock to buy now. NVDA is supposed to go parabolic after it breached $200 recently, but he's less confident in NVDA's level of demand because of competition.
Has huge momentum, the biggest chip company in the world that's driving the markets. It just set a record at $213 and is now $199. Come on--it's right in front of your face. Demand is outstripping competition.
Jim Lebenthal
Forecasting NVDA's movement after it reports late Tuesday, based on calls and puts, the share price will swing 11% either way from today's price. That straddle position is the risk that they market makers are willing to sell those calls or puts. Looking at the NVDA chart a year ago: shares ran up to earnings, followed by a sell-off for a couple of weeks. Also, we had a big move up in the price target after beating earnings. The next report: share ran up again, NVDA beat earnings, rallied for 2 weeks to the one-year forward price, then fell and went sideways to its breakout point. The last time, it rallied to a new high, a big beat, rallied a couple weeks, then another correction. Considering the price target now at $140 and 47x PE, we'll likely see selling into the quarter. Also, there's no support 11% lower, but at the rising 200-day average of $95ish.