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NVIDIA CorporationNVDAPARTIAL SELLApr 21, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 22, 2026. Market Open.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Chart shows staircase consolidations and rallies. Earnings days are a total black box for him, no idea what's going to happen today (coin toss). We'll either see a corrective phase back to support, or see another push higher.
Longer-term chart continues to work. He'd look to add on weakness -- either right away if there's a drop, or later in July/August if the stock moves higher in the short term.
He always says buy this, don't trade it. They just delivered another set of stunning numbers: revenue growing 85% year over year, revenue beating with most of their growth coming from their core data centre business, hyperscaler revenues up 115% YOY while other areas grew 74% YOY, while gross margins were in line, free cash flow beat, and announced an $80 billion share buyback. They raised guidance, too. But the stock is so big, it's hard to surprised investors, so the stock is flat after hours.
Likes it fundamentally, but a lot of things are overbought at this point. Be cautious how you step in. Will do well over next 12-24 months. Relatively cheap compared to other growth stories out there. The "arms dealer" of the AI buildout. Like the "picks & shovels" of the AI "gold rush". An ecosystem of hardware and software.
Will benefit from the major capex spend by hyperscalers. Earnings growth forecast for next few years is 45% a year. PEG ratio ~0.6x, very attractive valuation. Yield is 0.02%.
Markets are down today from Trump hectoring Jay Powell badly. If this leads to a constitutional crisis, you will need some cash. He always believed that the President can't fire the Fed Chair. This talk and tariffs have done enormous damage to stocks. Losses could worsen if Trump keeps trashing Powell without achieving a good tariff deal. Washington is incredibly biased against Nvidia and Apple, two excellent companies. Trump is more interested in cutting off China than advancing America's interests. This makes NVDA a hard stock to own, though not as bad as Apple. Apple makes the best consumer products on Earth, and they will eventually get AI right. But Apple makes a lot of products in China. The market could get worse, but at some point the pain will get so bad that Trump will back its most punitive measures. There has to be some sanity here. A strong Apple with business in China is in America's interest, while Nvidia is worth supporting. It doesn't have to be this way.