
NASDAQ:NVDA
The 800-pound gorilla. No question that they have a wave of demand.
Big question that some investors have is just how much investment is going to be required to build out all these data centres? In many cases, the companies building them have been capital-light. Sums to be invested are massive. Can these companies get a return on the investment they're making? That's creating a bit of a wobble in the market.
He wishes he knew, because then he could make a lot more money ;) When we look at the whole tech market, everything is priced to perfection. If there's a stumble, these names can rocket down 10-20% in a day. He doesn't know that that's going to happen, but expectations are very high. Great business, but overpriced.
We'll see what happens. If NVDA stumbles and does not meet expectations, it could be a bad tomorrow for the company. A game he doesn't want to play, as there's too much danger on the downside.
Bit of risk-off has come into markets in the last week or two. Mixed news. Good news today on GOOG, where BRK took a position. Yet on the other side, some prominent hedge funds have sold or sold short positions in the AI space. NVDA, for example, was divested from a very important hedge fund run by Peter Thiel. If Peter Thiel is selling NVDA, you have to sit up and take notice.
If you don't own it, buy here. A must-own. Pretty well sold out all the way until 2027. Some competition from the likes of AVGO and AMD, but it's still the leader. There will be a time (perhaps later in 2026 or in 2027) when growth rates will start to move down from 30% annual growth and closer to 20%. That's the time he thinks the engines will be the next big play.
His team always pays attention to the analysts' price targets, and it always becomes a bit self-fulfilling. Over the last year or two, there have been levels of resistance that now become levels of support. There's very heavy support ~$175-180 and again around $140-145. Valuations are stretched, and his team keeps in mind certain mental (not hard-wired) trailing stops so they can re-evaluate.
Bury is a great investor. Palantir is a more speculative business model with a strong retail investor following. In contrast, Nvidia is about the picks and shovels of the AI revolution. He isn't surprised Bury is betting against both, though. The demand Nvidia is seeing is supported by fundamentals. Companies are investing in AI and data centres, because they see strong demand for AI to be used in their businesses. Nvidia has done a great job of positioning themselves to take full advantage of what is happening today.
It has underperformed the Mag 7 of late, but over the past 3 years, GOOG is up 1,000% (Google only 250%). The stock is taking a breather like it did last year. Also, their earnings have grown as fast as the stock. We'll probably enter a period where $180-200 is a peak. She has January calls at $200, and is happy to sell calls right now.