
NASDAQ:NVDA
If you don't own it, buy here. A must-own. Pretty well sold out all the way until 2027. Some competition from the likes of AVGO and AMD, but it's still the leader. There will be a time (perhaps later in 2026 or in 2027) when growth rates will start to move down from 30% annual growth and closer to 20%. That's the time he thinks the engines will be the next big play.
His team always pays attention to the analysts' price targets, and it always becomes a bit self-fulfilling. Over the last year or two, there have been levels of resistance that now become levels of support. There's very heavy support ~$175-180 and again around $140-145. Valuations are stretched, and his team keeps in mind certain mental (not hard-wired) trailing stops so they can re-evaluate.
Bury is a great investor. Palantir is a more speculative business model with a strong retail investor following. In contrast, Nvidia is about the picks and shovels of the AI revolution. He isn't surprised Bury is betting against both, though. The demand Nvidia is seeing is supported by fundamentals. Companies are investing in AI and data centres, because they see strong demand for AI to be used in their businesses. Nvidia has done a great job of positioning themselves to take full advantage of what is happening today.
Not at all. There are too many people calling for a bubble. You don't have a bubble top when so many people are prognosticating that we might have a bubble. That's one sign.
The other sign is that if you look at forward earnings, it may be 26, 27, or maybe 30x forward PE. COST and WMT are trading at 50x. So that's not really a bubble. The darling of 2000, CSCO, was trading at 126x sales. That's a bubble.
He can see a bubble at some point in the future, and it's likely as this name continues skyward. But at the moment, it's fundamentally viable and driven by the demand for compute. The demand is actually there. Their chips are needed for AI, and the only reason we can't run AI at its full capabilities is because we can't get the energy to do so yet.
Only trading at 28x for 2027. Growing visibly in high 20s-low 30s. Only problem is if growth starts to slow. At what point do people jump ship? These are cyclical companies. The difference between being super-successful and not executing well can be by a factor of 10, as that's how exaggerated moves can be.
If demand really slows, look out below. Concerns of over-building in AI, might not all be needed, and we don't know for sure. The people saying that we need all this AI demand are the ones benefitting from the rising stock prices. The average of the 50 analysts who cover it are saying it can grow 27%. Still a good deal if what they're saying is true.
It may appear that Nvidia is investing in hardware ($100 billion in OpenAI), but really they are financing the purchase of their own equipment. The market responded by pushing the stock back to record highs where it remain slightly under that. Will this mean NVDA will break out to new highs or are existing shareholders selling? Take some money off the table. He likes AI for the long term, but the market is ahead of itself now.