Keith Richards Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T BUY Jul 21, 2025

Same play as ADM: has been reversing a long-term downtrend and recently has been moving up. Investors who had ignored this are now coming back.

Should be affected by tariffs, but it's actually not because of its Canadian and US standalone businesses. Inexpensive. Capital intensive, so the rate of return is not as high as he'd like. Agriculture seems to be working its way out of a funk.

World's largest crop nutrient business. Upstream production vertically integrated with downstream stores (in US, Canada, and some in South America). Commodity prices for the 3 fertilizer ingredients has bottomed, supported by steadily improving prices for major cash crops (corn, wheat, soybeans). 

Trades roughly at long-term average multiple. Earnings on cusp of a turning point. Dividend's increased 36% since merger in 2018, plus reduced outstanding shares by 23% since then. Yield 3.6%.

Is fairly valued. Has returned 59% over 5 years. The problem is that if the fertilizer price gets too high, farmers delay buying it. The PE is reasonable, though. It's had a good run the past 12 months.

The 3-year chart shows the longer-term downtrend and how it's now beginning to come out. Pulling back recently. Around $75 will be pretty important support. Technicals show it's turned a corner. Doesn't mind nibbling here.

Lots of geopolitical things happening. When stock shot up from Russian invasion, sold some but still retains a 1/2-2/3 position. Likes it long term. BHP is bringing on Jansen, but it's behind (and second phase may be mothballed). Good diversifier. Nice yield.

For new clients, buying a half position. Ideally, want to buy under $70.

Choppy stock, pretty volatile. But you can see the nice uptrend on the chart, which helps you digest the highs and lows. After a big downtrend, you had basing, and then a nascent uptrend -- stock's looking through bad news, just be patient. Can still buy today and do well.

Bought a position on the sense of a turning point in the fertilizer price cycle. Bit of a fade in last couple of weeks in some agricultural commodities. Patience will be rewarded. Financially strong. Downstream segment's margins are improving. Yield is close to 4%.

He'd buy this one today. Agriculture is a long-term theme, and this is one of the best names out there. Will be more volatile than a name like WMT, so perhaps you only want a 3% position total. Buy 1% today, and look for a spot to add.

Always go for quality. You want the best in your portfolio at all times.