Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

NFLX has emerged as essentially the clear winner in the streaming space. A few years ago, this statement was not as clear, as competitors like DIS, AMZN, were potential peers to NFLX in the space, but it is now clear that NFLX has a strong moat around its platform. Sales and earnings growth are expected to trend higher, analyst estimates are rising, and margins are expanding. It generates strong free cash flow and mostly repurchases shares with its cash flows. It trades at a reasonable valuation of 31X forward earnings. We feel that in a consumer slowdown scenario, cutting streaming platforms is one of the first places that consumers look at, and this is one of the biggest risks for the name, but over a long period of time, we think this name has a lot of potential. 

With the WBD bros deal we think NFLX becomes a powerhouse in the streaming space, without the WBD deal, we think it can continue to do well, but it will need to refocus on organic growth and balance sheet strength. Short-term the stock may fluctuate if the deal goes through, but we think it is positive for the stock long-term.
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This will be the start of a very long, difficult battle with Paramount over WBD.  Not a buy.

It is buying Warner Brothers in a multi-billion dollar deal. Building more content is interesting but globally how much more growth can be expected in subscriptions. Anti-trust investigations could be an issue. A lot of debt will be needed. If you own it, wait and see.  

Usually the acquiring company's stock does fall, so that's normal. There's going to be incredible regulatory scrutiny.  He predicts the deal won't get done, it's too anti-competitive. The White House is already taking a dim view of it. If the 1 in 4 odds come through and the deal does happen, it would be incredible for NFLX. We're talking about a 100-year library of the best movies.

Last quarter, missed on some Brazilian tax issues and so it missed on earnings. Big competition. But Q3 had the best sales ever, revenue was up 17% YOY, raised guidance. Aiming to double revenues by 2030. Also trying to leverage generative AI. Growing ~20%, trading at ~27x. Still really good value.

He sold 85% of his holding, though he really likes it. This will be a political football for the coming year after announcing it is buying Warner Bros. Discovery. While this deal works its way through the meat grinder, there are better things he can do with his money. There's a big anti-trust contingent in both parties in Washington.

He thinks it's a great deal, though it's unlikely Washington will approved it. Also, we'll see a hostile bid from Paramount. It's amazing to take Paramount's established franchises to another level. Will buy. If the deal dies, NFLX stock goes higher. He could write covered calls on this given more volatility to come.

King of the heap, global streaming leader. His 12-month price target is $134.50. Likes it, but it's not cheap. He suggests buying some here ~$104 (PE is ~mid-40s), and some more in the mid-$90s. Market outlook is good. 

Has owned it before. Is the definite leader. Are two strong drivers: cracking down on password sharers, and rolling out the ad tier. Also, they offer live events like WWE. Trades at 40-45x earnings on 15% revenue growth. Not cheap, but are best in class. Would buy below $90.

Is -20% since late June, but still 21% higher over one year. Be patient. Is no fundamental deterioration. The stock may have run up too much and is now consolidating.

Getting 25+% earnings growth, paying ~35x forward PE -- not a bad PEG ratio. Now getting more into live events, which is driving more engagement and subscriber growth. Revenue goes to boost content, particularly local content, especially in regions where it's pushing to expand. Clear leader, continues to impress.

They understand how to make movies and TV shows and what people want. Also likes that NFLX is a subscription business.

Best to look at both the 3-year and 1-year charts. Parabolic move off the trendline, now pulling back and basing, and that's OK. His team never buys the day before earnings, because you can get nasty shocks. But generally with NFLX, you don't. Looks constructive so far.

Either wait for it to break out of its current consolidation, or buy right at the bottom of the trading range it's in.

40x forward PE, but you get 25+% earnings growth forecast. Lifted by great global hits plus regional content. The screaming winner in the space.

Technicals show a retracement back to the April low and aligns with consolidation in early May before it broke out. So, now is the time to buy.