Opinions Greg Newman
Netflix Inc.NFLXBUYDec 05, 2025
Greg NewmanStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Nov 06, 2026. Market Open.
You might be interested:
It's had a rough year, following the failed Warners bid. He still likes it, because the business is performing quite well. They have more subscribers and revenues outside the U.S. where they have little competition and are growing rapidly. Also, they replaced the head of content, and are looking to ad sports. Lots of ways to improve growth ahead.
(Analysts’ price target is $86.35)
The fundamentals are as good or better as people have hoped. But there are worries that people are watching YouTube and no longer Netflix, but this is not in the numbers. These things reverse very quickly. Look at Google's stock. He thinks Netflix will grow at double digits for many years.
Barry Schwartz
;fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M31%2018.6001V30H8V18.6001L14.1334%2022.4334L19.4999%2014L24.8669%2022.4334L31%2018.6001Z'%20fill='%23EE5432'%20style='fill:%23EE5432;fill:color(display-p3%200.9340%200.3310%200.1956);fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
Premium contentNetflix plans to accelerate growth in live entertainment. It currently spends 5% of its annual $20 billion content budget on it, though attracts 1% of viewership. Overall content spending is up from $24 billion in 2025 to $25.1 billion in the first half of this year alone. The spending will squeeze cash flow, but new content will attract viewers in an ever-competitive industry. As for the share price, it's been brutal, plunging from its spring highs around $108 to a current bottom of $67 to match level from late July. Yes, Netflix faces challenges, but it has too many good numbers to dismiss. Time to bottom-feed.
There are two big streaming companies, Netflix and YouTube. Netflix should be able to increase its subscriber growth by diversifying its business into sports, etc. There is an uptick on their paids. It does a lot of its own content and buys content very easily. You can buy at these levels.
He bought more, though it's a small position, because it traded down on a downgrade--but this was piling onto a stock that already had a tough time. He thinks for a trade, this will bounce. He though their last quarter was good, though the market didn't. With everybody so negative on Netflix, he thinks the bad news is already baked in.
Usually the acquiring company's stock does fall, so that's normal. There's going to be incredible regulatory scrutiny. He predicts the deal won't get done, it's too anti-competitive. The White House is already taking a dim view of it. If the 1 in 4 odds come through and the deal does happen, it would be incredible for NFLX. We're talking about a 100-year library of the best movies.
Last quarter, missed on some Brazilian tax issues and so it missed on earnings. Big competition. But Q3 had the best sales ever, revenue was up 17% YOY, raised guidance. Aiming to double revenues by 2030. Also trying to leverage generative AI. Growing ~20%, trading at ~27x. Still really good value.