
NASDAQ:NFLX
Makes sense this bounced after it bowed out of the Warners bidding. Warners would have diluted a stronger company. Wouldn't buy it now. He sees long-term secular decline in streaming, because young people prefer YouTube, which is twice as big as Netflix. North American Netflix numbers are starting to fade, too.
Did the right thing by making a bid without destroying their balance sheet, and then pulled away. They get a $2.8B breakup fee. Still the largest streamer in the world. Great business, continues to grow.
Given what it paid, Paramount's going to have to do a lot of work to make the acquisition accretive.
The Warners deal has impacted NFLX with concerns over how much debt NFLX would take on. Also, some ask why they want Warners? He thinks Netflix is a great company whether they buy Warners or not. If they don't get Warners, NFLX will receive a break fee. NFLX shares are near 2022 lows. NFLX continues to grow subscribers and revenues in double digits. He sees Warners as a good pick-up because NFLX would drive penetration of HBO and Warners content globally. There's a huge runway. NFLX could still keep movies in theatres or syndicate shows to third parties.
(Analysts’ price target is $110.07)More of a contrarian play. Lots of noise. Continues to strengthen its competitive positioning. Only platform with true global distribution. Sustainable, positive FCF. Pullback is opportunity. Subscriber trend remains solid. Foray into live events is positive. No dividend.
(Analysts’ price target is $110.07)His team has been circling this one. Valuation of 24x PE much more attractive and reasonable now. Topline growing 12-13%. Go-to streaming offering. Continues to joust for the WBD asset -- it wants just the streaming business, whereas Paramount wants the whole thing. Trump's weighed in (as he does on everything), so it's going to come under regulatory scrutiny for a long time, and that will be an overhang.
Looking good at these levels. Great execution. Likes the underlying fundamentals.
Challenged of late because of concerns about spending to acquire WBD and is that worthwhile? Long-term aspects of the deal indicate that NFLX will be such a big content and media provider that it can beat out all competition.
Subscriber base continues to grow. Despite capex spend, still sees ~20% earnings growth going forward. Trades ~24x forward PE, not expensive. Likes it, but market's pummeling it. Approaching support levels. If you don't own, add slowly and see where it goes.
Fallen below 200-day MA, which is starting to turn -- a bit concerning.
(10-for-1 stock split 17 Nov 2025) Volatility all due to the chase for WBD, and now they get a $2.8B breakup fee. Market was concerned about this acquisition. Should recover, expects it to be the long-term leader.