Halloween Sale
50% off Premium Yearly
Opinions Paul Harris, CFA
Netflix Inc.NFLXBUYDec 24, 2025
Paul Harris, CFAStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 16, 2026. Market Open.
You might be interested:
;fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M31%2018.6001V30H8V18.6001L14.1334%2022.4334L19.4999%2014L24.8669%2022.4334L31%2018.6001Z'%20fill='%23EE5432'%20style='fill:%23EE5432;fill:color(display-p3%200.9340%200.3310%200.1956);fill-opacity:1;'/%3e%3c/svg%3e){kind=small}
Premium contentNetflix plans to accelerate growth in live entertainment. It currently spends 5% of its annual $20 billion content budget on it, though attracts 1% of viewership. Overall content spending is up from $24 billion in 2025 to $25.1 billion in the first half of this year alone. The spending will squeeze cash flow, but new content will attract viewers in an ever-competitive industry. As for the share price, it's been brutal, plunging from its spring highs around $108 to a current bottom of $67 to match level from late July. Yes, Netflix faces challenges, but it has too many good numbers to dismiss. Time to bottom-feed.
There are two big streaming companies, Netflix and YouTube. Netflix should be able to increase its subscriber growth by diversifying its business into sports, etc. There is an uptick on their paids. It does a lot of its own content and buys content very easily. You can buy at these levels.
He bought more, though it's a small position, because it traded down on a downgrade--but this was piling onto a stock that already had a tough time. He thinks for a trade, this will bounce. He though their last quarter was good, though the market didn't. With everybody so negative on Netflix, he thinks the bad news is already baked in.
He's buying more shares. Investors worry NFLX is losing share to YouTube and TokTok, while Paramount and Warners will likely merge. But NFLX still has the largest user base in the world and they make the most money per engagement. This allows them to add more content than their peers. They still grow revenues and profits. Still likes it.
(Note the short timeframe.) The market loved it for a while after the abandoned WBD deal. Then market started to focus on competition. But people aren't cancelling subscriptions; in fact, just the opposite. Trades at 20x 2027 PE for double-digit growth, terrific balance sheet. Boundless opportunities, sees so much upside.
Barry Schwartz
Paramount needs the Warner Bros. deal more than NFLX does. Family trust has now been taken out, with Ellison backing the whole thing, so the story becomes more difficult for Warner. From a regulatory view, this would put Paramount in charge of an awful lot of media.
As for NFLX itself, this is the first time it's really bought something; has been homegrown up till now. If they can get this asset, it'll have a much broader and deeper catalogue, as that's what it spends a lot of its money on. Good deal if they can get it. Hollywood hates NFLX, but the reality is that streaming is where movies are going. Hollywood's dying a slow death.
Multiple's only about 28x, whereas it was previously 100x. If they walk away from the deal, stock will go up. If they do the deal, it'll be great for them in the long run. Great time to be buying. You don't lose too much by dipping in at these levels. May up their bid, and that would hurt the stock a bit. The NFLX bid seems to be Warner Bros' preferred one.