Opinions Paul Harris, CFA
Netflix Inc.NFLXBUYDec 24, 2025
Paul Harris, CFAStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 02, 2026. Market Open.
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New fears that it's missing the boat and needs to look for another asset. Missed on American guidance because it was front-end-loading content. Massive scale. Margins actually expanded last quarter from 29.5% to 31.5%. More subscribers, more ads (and revenue), more countries, more NFL.
Secular growth, market leadership, economic buoyancy. Good quality compounder. Growing 15%, trades at 15x. If you're scared to buy it today, sell puts. No dividend.
Greg NewmanIt is largely mature in its North American subscriber base so growth is slow and that is their high margin area. The international base has growth but it is low margin. It is trading at a pretty high multiple of 40X earnings. It also has competition from elsewhere. People are moving more into shorts and this benefits YouTube which has twice the user base size as Netflix.
Recently disappointing. Price now below 200-day MA, which has started to roll over. It's still the leader. Going back to its roots of creating content, and now getting into live sports. Trades at 24.5x forward PE, and ~23% growth. Valuation makes a lot of sense, but technical structure a bit soft. His team is evaluating.
Stan Wong
Clear global leader in high-quality video content streaming. Pricing power in the face of competition, best-in-class customer retention. He expects revenue to grow at double-digit pace, margins should expand.
Aggressive investment in movies and shows, but increasingly podcasts and live events. Capitalizing on digital ads. Earnings should grow at 22% compound pace for next 3 years. Trades ~22x PE, good tradeoff between value and growth. Share buybacks. No dividend.
Brian Madden
He has a core holding on either side of 3.5% -- he trims on the way up, buys back on the way down and writes options around it. Price for another (but smaller) M&A deal is ongoing.
His 12-month price target is $116.33. Buy a third here ~$88, another third ~$84-85, and then ~$80.
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Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported 0.56 USD per share, beating the 0.55 USD estimate by 1.41%. Revenue for the same period reached 12.05 B USD, despite the estimate of 11.97 B USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect 0.76 USD in earnings per share and 12.18 B USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 1,575% in the past 24h.
Paramount needs the Warner Bros. deal more than NFLX does. Family trust has now been taken out, with Ellison backing the whole thing, so the story becomes more difficult for Warner. From a regulatory view, this would put Paramount in charge of an awful lot of media.
As for NFLX itself, this is the first time it's really bought something; has been homegrown up till now. If they can get this asset, it'll have a much broader and deeper catalogue, as that's what it spends a lot of its money on. Good deal if they can get it. Hollywood hates NFLX, but the reality is that streaming is where movies are going. Hollywood's dying a slow death.
Multiple's only about 28x, whereas it was previously 100x. If they walk away from the deal, stock will go up. If they do the deal, it'll be great for them in the long run. Great time to be buying. You don't lose too much by dipping in at these levels. May up their bid, and that would hurt the stock a bit. The NFLX bid seems to be Warner Bros' preferred one.