
NASDAQ:MSFT
It's incredible that the largest companies--megatech--keep going straight up. But it's inevitable to take profits, like she recently did with Apple. Still a fine company. She added to Microsoft because she sees a little more runway ahead. Markets will more further, because the money sitting on the sidelines is entering the market. But eventually, the market will scrutinize valuations.
Loves the company. Wouldn't add right now. Recently trimmed on valuation, north of 30x earnings, and free cashflow yield is lower than in the past. Will do exceptionally well over the long term. Risk of multiple contraction. If there are no tax implications, consider trimming just a bit to take some off the table.
A top 5 holding for him. Led the charge in generative AI. He trimmed when it approached his price target of $338. Good entry points are $325, 315, and 300. Doubts an entry below $300, as it has so many horses in the race. He has a 3.5% weighting. If you don't want to trim, you could write calls against it with strikes around $335-345.
It deserves its re-rating. The report was a relief and its numbers beat: slightly better revenue and costs, making some disciplined margin improvement, and generated a lot of free cash flow. Generative AI is important, though they didn't stress it in the call. MSFT's beat benefits the market as a whole, given its 6% weight in the S&P. MSFT is on the verge of acceleration. Bulls say it's the way to play AI safely (cushioned by its various businesses), but bears say the valuation is too high and it isn't a pure-play AI. Her answer: the chart has climbed a wall of worry and has made a beautiful move higher after bottoming at the end of 2022. Also, the UK blocks Microsoft's takeover and she's glad--videogames are cyclical and is a tough business.
Strong momentum in generative AI. There's faith in Azure cloud re-accelerating. At the end of 2022, MSFT didn't suffer from weakening fundamentals, but rather was a victim of tax-loss selling for the megacaps. The report reiterated a strong fundamental company that's focused on the cloud. Shares remain 15% below its 15% all-time high from Nov. 2021, and entering 2023 saw under-allocations not seen for 12 years. Since then, investors have been rebuilding their positions as growth returns in vogue and yields fall off.
It has had a big run-up and should level off at 30X earnings which is over-priced. The CEO sold half his shares at the end of 2021. He holds but is not buying more. A good time to take some profit.