Linamar Corp (LNR.TO)

It has come off a lot. He had bought it expecting a good bounce, but it didn't happen. Despite NAFTA worries before, there are concerns about Peak Auto approaching. He's holding for now. They're the most undervalued auto parts stock.

This is his first foray into auto parts in a long time. It is NAFTA-driven. All the auto parts companies are hurting from the NAFTA rhetoric. He feels that the prices have been knocked down too far, creating a good opportunity. He feels this way about the entire category and is recommending Linamar because it was hurt more than the others in its space. Linamar is well-run and profitable. He expects that there will be a NAFTA agreement and the stock price will rise well. Yield 0.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $80.56)

It is extremely well managed. The stock is really cheap. The forecast is up to $11 per share of earnings and the stock sells for only $60. There is substantial free cash flow. There is a significant order backlog for the next couple of years. He expects it to grow further. The fears holding the price back are Free Trade and also the auto cycle might not last. Linamar took on some debt when they bought a privately owned farm machinery company and when they bought Skyjack, a hydraulic jack lift company that has hundreds of millions in sales and will do very well in the US. They have expanded that business beyond lifts. The company is very advanced. They offer several electric drive products and have won contracts with manufacturers for electric vehicle parts. He thinks investors could double their money in 1 or 2 years without much risk. Yield 0.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $80.56)

All auto parts stocks have been beat up because of NAFTA treaty delays and Trump's tariffs. Auto parts involve steel and aluminum which also face tariffs. Also, the auto cycle has likely peaked in North America and maybe the world. We could see an extended slide in auto sales.

LNR-T vs. MG-T. LRN-T has been overly beat up. MG-T is less exposed to the trade wars. He thinks LNR-T is a better buy.

He would hold it. It is a great divergence between what the market is doing and what the fundamentals are saying. Everyone is predicting doom and gloom in the auto sector. They are right in the heart of Canadian auto parts. His model price is 102% from where it is. Once we get clarity on NAFTA and where we are in the auto sector, he would look at it.

Plenty of upside as we approach NAFTA talks and a resolution. Otherwise, it's cheap name. The firs stop is $65 to the upside. Any hopeful NAFTA news will lift this. (Analysts' price target: $79.06)

The auto sector is dealing with the risks of tariffs. He would be surprised if tariffs actual come into being. This will never be a high P/E company, due to the low technical complexity of the business. If the market corrects, this may be a more defensive holding as it only trades near 10 times earnings already. (Analysts’ price target is $84)