
NYSE:JPM
You have to own a US bank in your portfolio. Valuation is quite attractive. This is one sector that will benefit from rising interest rates. Meanwhile, it is benefiting from the US housing recovery. Still cheap. Thinks it could trade well into the $60-$70 range over the next year or so, on an improving outlook on the US economy.
Probably the most senior of US banks. Pretty healthy, but like all of them, it is in a position where they are making their money through cost cutting. That is not a great reason to own a company. The opportunity with the banks is if the net interest margins start to expand. Banks are starting to hit his screens.
Have finished acquiring the joint venture of City, which should close pretty soon and will be tied with Merrill Lynch for the largest wealth management brokerage business. They could triple their profits. They are going to add $57 billion in deposits over the next 3 years because of that. As interest rates rise, the spread rises and you could add $800 million in profits. That would be 15%-20% of their current profit, just from the deposit base alone.
You can buy this today at around 8.8X this year’s earnings. On a price to book basis it’s below 0.9 times still. Very attractive multiples. Below book because it’s ROE is only about 10%. In this industry, you are likely see ROE’s increase over the next few years, which will mean increases in price to book. Dividend yield of 3.14%. Great way to play a recovery in the US market and you get interest-rate sensitivity as well.
Thinks there is a catalyst over the next couple of years to see increased dividend payouts. This one is paying out about 23% of its earnings and he thinks there is going to be a steady progression of growing the percentage. Increasing market share in the sector that people care about. Yield of 2.39%.
Likes the US banks a lot and this is a big granddaddy of them all. Their core business is very solid. Investment banking is rebounding. Net interest margins are beginning to rise. Housing market is doing well. Only trading at 9X PE, which is a huge discount to its historical norm.