Stockchase Opinions

Chyanne FickesJP Morgan Chase & CoJPMTOP PICKFeb 25, 2013

US plays are cheaper. Have done very well in the last year. Some of the risk has been taken out. 8.5 times earnings, just under book.

$47.70

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Financial Services
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 13/25, Up 17%)

Bit of delay in reward, but whole banking sector's in a great position. Tons of capital markets business coming on. Yield curve steepening is really the money driver behind borrowing/lending. Very strong trading numbers.

PARTIAL BUY

Capital markets broadly are improving, so more investment fees should come through. Deregulation coming through, consumer not as badly off as feared. Good place to start looking, given the sector's lagged. Yield is 2%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 21/25, Up 33%)

All the North American banks had a great 2025. JPM is the most profitable US one. The dividend yield is rising and financial results have been strong. Is the US bank to own.

BUY
Retiree looking for safe stock for 10 years.

Can't go wrong. Safe, defensive banking provider. Attracts low-cost deposits. Built up wealth management. Great net interest margins, which go up over time. Yield is 2%, so not a dividend play compared to the Canadian banks.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Best bank in the world. Owned in his firm's momentum and dividend-growers mandates. 

Likes US banks, but likes Canadian banks better due to the tighter oligopoly and better ROEs. US money-centre banks are technology- and scale-advantaged compared to regionals.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
JPM vs. C

One of the largest US banks, the gold standard. Leading across all divisions. Consistently delivers some of the strongest returns in the industry. 

Just reported strong quarter, record trading revenue, earnings up 13%, revenue ahead of expectations. Pulled back on slightly higher expense guidance. Higher-quality name, trades at a premium (for good reason).

Citi is still a turnaround story. CEO has been simplifying the business -- cutting costs and focusing on strongest franchises. Strong quarter, beat on revenue and earnings. Outperforming peers. Cheaper, with more upside potential (but more risk if turnaround stops working).

She's sticking with JPM, but C is a reasonable choice if you like the turnaround angle.

BUY

It is the best of the banks. Jamie Dimon who runs it is the best banker in the world and a major shareholder. It trades at a high multiple but with a 20%+ ROC it earns it. He has owned for 15 years. Headwinds would be an economic slowdown and Jamie getting older with the possibility of retiring.

HOLD

A senior bank, and it's priced that way. In this environment, you want to take advantage of the up-and-coming-banks such as Citi.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Bought a long time ago as best-in-breed. US banking sector had a downdraft on worries of credit problems. But private credit issues aren't with the banks -- since 2008-2009, banks can't lend to those types of businesses.

PARTIAL BUY

Leave some $$ in your technology sleeve to allocate to one of the end users -- an industrial (TT) or big US bank (JPM or Citi) or retail/logistics (WMT or COST).

WEAK BUY

They report Tuesday. The CEO tends to issue cautious guidance while the street often finds things to quibble over it, even when they're not worth quibbling over. Still, it's a good bank.

HOLD

There is a correlation with financial institutions in the country and internationally and it shows in the chart. He doesn't see a ton of buying volume. It is a similar situation to Royal Bank and is highly connected to the stock market index. He sees some support but wouldn't put new money into it at this point. Banks are definitely a long term holding even though every ten years they can go through a big drop from their highs.

BUY

After doing really well last year plus turmoil from Iran, US banks have seen a lot of profit-taking. Once it rebounds from that, will continue to do quite well.

WEAK BUY
JPM vs. C

Likes US large banks -- will continue to benefit from deregulation and a sturdy economy. Owns JPM, but likes both names.

On technicals C is holding above the 200-day MA, making it stronger than JPM which is falling a bit below. C also has a lower price-to-book. JPM probably has more earnings growth ahead.

BUY

Regulations are loosening, capital markets is wanting to happen in the US economy, and the yield curve is steepening. A lot of tailwinds are bubbling beneath the surface, but haven't happened yet. The big banks are well-protected from things like the private credit crisis now.