
NYSE:JPM
Likes the idea of owning American banks, because they are going to become prime beneficiaries of interest rates going up. They don’t have the earnings headwinds Canadian banks have, and they don’t have the credit risks that he believes Canadian banks have. This is not one of the banks that he likes because it has a big capital markets area, and he is not interested in that area. Prefers BB&T Corp (BBT-N), a consumer bank, (See Past Picks) and a commercial bank BankUnited (BKU-N) out of Florida.
There is nothing wrong with this bank. It is more senior and well-managed. He likes it, but is just not sure that there is not more to gain by being in a different area of the market. Relatively fully priced. It will participate in the banks rising, but on a relative basis it will not be an outperformer compared to the other banks.
This will do well with the rest of the large US banks. In terms of valuation, they look strong. In terms of interest rates eventually moving up, they look strong. In terms of litigation being in the rear-view mirror, that is going to help stocks like this. Capital markets are getting better and the housing market is getting better. He doesn’t see selling anytime soon.
What is the advantage of purchasing the preferred shares? Generally the advantage is that you get a slightly higher dividend yield, but beyond that most people should be comfortable with purchasing the common. Considers this to be one of the finest banks globally, if not the finest. A fabulously run company.
Jamie Diamond has done a spectacular job of working this bank through all of their troubles. Likes the growing of their earnings and a lot of their core competencies. They are making a lot of money in a lot of different ways. They will make more money as US interest rates start to come up. The largest bank in the US.
Banks are going to be more sensitive to the effect of the bond market on long rates, rather than what the Fed does. This is a more senior bank and didn’t get hurt as much as the other banks during the 08-09 experience. Because of this, on a recovery you will probably see less of a recovery. Based on that, Bank of America (BAC-N) and Citigroup (C-N) would be better choices. (See Top Picks.)
Banks have been “not loved” for many years. Thinks their litigation costs was a high water mark in the 1st quarter which is pretty good. Has a pretty good upside target of around $88. This may be one that you hold just for the short term. Alternatively you could buy the Spider Financial ETF (XLF-N) if you don’t want the specific risk.
(A Top Pick April 7/14. Up 4.36%.) There has been a lack of lending in the US that the government would like increased. You are going to see more bank regulation going forward, and at some point there are going to be some spinoffs in areas that are deemed to be non-core that might require more regulations. They have been clobbered and he thinks this is a good place to be.