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Suncor (SU-T) or Husky(HSE-T)? Over the long term within energy, you want to own the high-quality names. This company has done a pretty good job. Vertically integrated. Slipping up on their oil sands as there is some International exposure. His choice would be neither. He prefers Imperial Oil (IMO-T) over the long-term, because by far they are the best operator with the highest returns.
It is too late to get out. This is the time to do the analysis. They have had a very careful turnaround under the current CEO. Capital allocation has been very, very good. They have created more free cash flow. They also have some downstream assets that produce a great deal of extra profits that come from lower oil prices. Upstream operations have been extremely beneficial.
His view is that $75 oil could be here for a while, but could go lower. Very few companies have cut CapX for 2015. If this continues, there could be more pain. Maintaining dividends is going to be difficult for a lot of companies, unless they have a very active hedging program. Dividend yield of 4.4%.
A good name. Solid and integrated. Even with WTI oil at $80 and $3.50 natural gas and almost no debt, it is still cheap. 5X enterprise value to discounted adjusted cash flow versus peers at around 7.5-8 times. Dividend is safe-ish at around 100% payout ratio. At these levels, unless you think oil is going to really fall apart, you own it.
Doesn’t know if Shorting has been specific to this company. The whole sector overall has been punished, partially due to Short sellers. This is a conglomerate having a lot of assets from producing. One neat thing is their Southeast Asian offshore component where gas prices fetch a lot more than they do here. Good quality company, but just a question of the sector recently having been taking a beating. He could think of worse things to own than this in the energy patch.
Cenovus (CVE-T) or Husky (HSE-T)? He moved some money here when oil prices came off, as he felt they would benefit from the retail side of their business. He still feels that way. Dividend yield of 4.8%.