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TSE:G
Gold has been out of favour. We are into some seasonality currently and gold stocks are generally up 10%+. He has been wondering if he should be lightening up, but it is acting very well. If he sees other kinds of problems on the horizon that may shake markets up, gold stocks may tend to be the offset.
The last 2.5 years for gold stocks has been pretty painful in general. This is one of the better run stocks. The previous Indian government imposed a bunch of import taxes and duties. New government will be removing most of those, which will be a big boost to physical gold demand. Everybody should have a little.
Made a lowball offer of $5.95 a share for Osisko (OSK-T). What has worked against them is that Osisko is very levered to higher gold prices which means that it is worth more. They are probably going to have to pay a little more. There doesn’t seem to be anybody else showing up so they are still going to get it at a relatively lowball valuation.
Takeover bid for OSK-T. G-T and OSK today agreed to settle some of the litigation between them, but they are not currently in talks. Gold had a huge move and it is hard to distinguish what is the driver. This one should suffer if the deal is not going to go through. Gold stocks are very, very cheap. We need core inflation to pick up to drive gold. We are looking at range trading for most gold stocks right now. Thinks there may be one more move down for gold.
Thinks gold stocks have made a bottom for now. Likes that stocks are moving before bullion, which is generally a positive. This one is a leader in its field. Good properties. Their geographical diversification is probably a little safer than some of their competitors. Valuation is high but he feels gold stocks are underowned at this time.
Barrick (ABX-T) or Goldcorp (G-T)? Gold is around $1200-$1300 an ounce, about equal to the cost to profitably bring on a new mine today. If gold goes any lower, you’ll see capacity fall off, which ultimately will turn the gold price around. The issue is which company can do better in a rising gold market. Barrick languished because it had a balance sheet that wasn’t very good, and had to raise equity to fix it. Goldcorp has some of the best growth opportunities, which is ultimately what you are buying.