Ford Motor (F)

Auto sales in the US is around 15-15.5 million. Have slowly been improving in the last couple of years. Average age of the vehicle on the road has risen to over 10 years and this is a good sign for new growth in autos. This company has had a good run. Europe is still a big problem for these auto companies. She has a side play that will participate in the auto sector, not only in the US but also in China. (See Top Picks.)

He looks at it as an international play but if the US economy starts to recover they will do well in trucks. They will get double digit growth in Asia. This is the only one that did not take government money. They still have Ford Motor Company Credit, which is a great money maker when times get better. The age of the fleet in North America is as old as it has ever been.

(A Top Pick Feb 7/12. Up 9.13%.) Thinks it is very early stages in the recovery of the auto sector. Just upped their dividend recently.

Auto sector is looking attractive. Average US car is 11 or 12 years old, so people are due for a new one. This one has picked up and moved across the 200 day moving average and through the 50 day moving average. These are great technical signs. He is going to take a very close look at this one. In the near-term it is really overbought at 82 RSI. Try to get it in the $12 range.

Has been a lot of positive pickup in auto sales in the US. She prefers General Motors (GM-N) because you can pick it up for half the price of Ford using valuations based on earnings and net position on the balance sheet. That’s also including all the pension liabilities in there.

Just doubled its dividend. Have been doing a very good job. The whole car industry is really doing well. He tends to play this more through the derivatives such as the suppliers. Have a highly leveraged balance sheet including close to $100 billion in debt and $18 billion of unfunded pension liabilities.

Looking quite appealing. March to May seasonal strength. It is already breaking out. A bit early for his liking from seasonal point of view. If it tested $11.50 don’t go into it.

Auto sector in general has been a great place to be. Chart shows a 45° rise, which is very healthy. This was followed suddenly by an almost parabolic upward move. Probably a little overbought but technically it has broken through old levels of resistance. A little bit of a pullback might be due and that would be an entry point. Thinks it could make it to almost $16 eventually.

US economy is now being led by the auto sector as well as the housing sector. Unfortunately, they have a large business in Europe, which is dragging down the company. He is more interested in the parts area. As long as the economy continues to improve, this should be a reasonable bet.

A real dividend growth story going forward. 1.8% now. Ford is a different company than it was 3 or 4 years ago. Never took money from the government. Should see significant growth going forward.

We are seeing it leveling off after earnings release. A lot of debt. It is a tough industry. There are lots of good stocks out there to buy.

Had a big pop partially due to earnings and partially due to closing some of their European operations. Thinks that most of Europe is going to be in a recession going forward for some time. However, the F series trucks are selling very strongly. If he were to pick an automaker in North America, this would be that name. Trading around 8.5X PE forward. Long-term growth is looking to be quite weak at around 6% or so. Look at Tata Motors (TTM-N) instead.

(A Top Pick Oct 18/11. Down 13.73%.) Despite one of the strongest performances in their North American automotive business and a huge resurgence in the North American auto industry, it has been dragged down because they have a chunk of their business in Europe and people are worrying too much about that. Thinks they are going to fix Europe and get the cost structure down. Still a Buy. 2% dividend.

Very good margins on their US operations but Europe is their big overhang. They are not making money in Asia either. These stocks tend to trade at pretty low multiples and she doesn’t see that changing going forward.

(A Top Pick Oct 28/11. Down 17.46%.) Thinks the auto sector is so undervalued. This one looks like $1.30-$1.40 in earnings and trading at 7X. They are growing. Debt has been upgraded recently. Picking up market share. Cheap stock.