Enbridge (ENB.TO)

It is one of the quality companies. The risk is that rates start rising and there is a fair amount of debt on the books. They are professional managers and can handle that kind of debt increase. The issue for them is that in this country we have an anti-pipe attitude. He is worried about the growth on this one. It is well managed although there will be some headwinds on rate rises. He is not in the sector because he does not know where the growth comes from.

He likes this. Feels it is still working through Spectra which they acquired in the US. A lot of stock was exchanged. Expects there has been pressure of US Spectra holders getting Enbridge stock and trying to get out of it, so it’s been trending sideways for a few months. Management said they have a 5-7 year plan of increasing earnings 8%-10%, but increasing dividends 8%-10% per year. If they are able to, this looks like one of the best yield/growth combinations out there, with safety. This is a great entry point.

Was considering this as a Top Pick for tonight’s program. It provides energy infrastructure and accounts for a significant portion of the oil prices between Canada and the US. They have a $25+ billion backlog that they should be able to execute. Doesn’t think there is risk to energy infrastructure companies.

We are in a low interest rate environment, and pipelines are something people would own if they believed we are staying in a low interest rate environment. From 2009 to 2014, there was an enormous boom in production, which meant tolls went up a lot. As they went up, earnings, cash flow and dividends went up, and the multiples that investors were prepared to pay went up. They turned into growth stocks. Then volume growth started to slow down, so the multiple has been compressing. He wouldn’t focus in bond proxies such as this.

The largest pipeline operator in North America. They just acquired a US pipeline and that makes their network that much bigger and more diversified. It yields about 4.7% which is much longer than its long run average. There is a very clearly articulated plan to grow the dividend at 10-12% compound rate of return over the next 4 years. (Analysts’ target: $60.00).

The utility space is a wonderful space in your portfolio. This one has guided for double digit dividend growth going forward. For income, you can’t beat this area. In a diversified portfolio, especially in Canada, you have to own 1 or 2 of these. One thing that worries him is that this is more focused on oil. He would prefer a more regulated utility such as Canadian Utilities (CU-T) or Fortis (FTS-T).

(A Top Pick Oct 12/16. Down 6%.) Hadn’t done as well as expected. It is a pipeline stock and is interest sensitive. Rising interest rates have worked against all interest sensitive stocks. In the last few months, anything energy related had investors backing away, which hit the pipelines. They also have the Line 3 replacement in their backlog, and still have to get Minnesota’s regulatory approval. In a slowly rising rate environment this is quite attractive, and you are getting paid to wait. She would still be a buyer.

The 4.7% yield is attractive. Reading the reports on the street, everybody was happy with their growth plans, and more specifically, comfortable with the ability to pay their dividends.

At best, this is a Hold. He still doesn’t like it. A lot of these big Canadian utility pipelines have done US acquisitions, and the way the Cdn$ has moved, it has worked against them in the short term. His bigger problem is valuation. It is basically trading Debt to EBDA above 6 times. Earnings are growing, but the dividend is a 4% yield. They have something like $2.25 in estimated earnings this year, and are basically paying out 100% of earnings in the form of dividends. They also have a high debt ratio. Growth is only about 5%. Also, the PE multiple is still above 20.

The last time he recommended this was about 2 years ago when the stock took a real dive. Subsequent to that, the company got back up to its usual high valuation. It is now starting to roll over. It really doesn’t have much in the way of upside potential. Wait for another set back, or buy in slowly for the next 6 months where you might catch a nice low. Dividend yield of 4.7%.

Energy infrastructure is the largest over-weight in his portfolio, because production of both oil and natural gas in North America has doubled in the last 5-10 years. Not only has production doubled, but it is going completely in the opposite way that it used to. We built all these regasification terminals on the East and West Coasts to bring in LNG. We built all these oil offloading terminals on the Gulf Coast to take oil into the Midwest to refine it, and now oil is going the complete opposite way, as is natural gas for export. This creates a tremendous opportunity for these infrastructure companies. They are undertaking the largest capital project in their history with the line 3 replacement.

In Q2 they missed, due to an outage at Syncrude. Line 3 is being delayed. What is good is that they got permitting for Line 3 in many other jurisdictions, and thinks it goes in on budget and on time in the 1^st half of 2019. Trading at a very compelling valuation, 9% 2018 estimated free cash yield, versus 7.7% for its peers. He models 10% annual dividend growth. Dividend yield of 4.7%. (Analysts’ price target is $62.)

This has underperformed the sector of pipelines and mid-streamers. A good company, but has a fairly convoluted structure overall, which has created a lot of confusion. Some of the bigger money managers are really questioning and worried that they might come back to market to raise more equity. Because of that, the stock has been under pressure.

This has a dividend yield of 4.8%, the highest it has been since 2001. It got punished with the oil sector, and because of all the politics involved. This is a growth business. They are going to grow the dividend at double digits for the next couple of years, and thinks it can continue to grow at double digits beyond that. (Analysts’ price target is $62.)

Usually utility stocks, like this, do well in the summer, from April through to September of each year. It hasn’t really shown through this year. Technically, it established a downward trend and recently broke down below the support level. You are probably better off to look for opportunities elsewhere.