Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Cable cutting is a real phenomenon. To the extent that this company’s revenues are based on cable and pay for television services, they are going to see some pressure. We have already seen it in the stock price. Wouldn’t be interested in owning this.

This has taken a beating since November, despite Star Wars being such a big success. He knows what has happened with the ESPN and what has affected the stock in terms of cable cutting, but also knows that as ESPN has lost subscribers to cable networks, they have been able to charge more over time, so the revenues have gone up. Likes this and thinks the stock has settled down in the $90s, and is not falling anymore. He would continue accumulating for the long-term. Have a lot of catalysts coming up including all the different Star Wars sequels that are coming out in the next few years. Also, Disneyland will be opening in Shanghai later this year.

This has been a phenomenal story. They have gotten so much right. Recently this has been selling off because of concerns about ESPN. Given the run-up in the share price and the valuation it is trading at; she would use any weakness as a cause to Sell. Run with a good story so long as it is good. At this point, it’s a Sell.

They pounded the numbers the other day, and yet the stock traded off 3%-4% because the market didn’t like the way they got to the numbers on the Star Wars. ESPN was only one part of the grand scheme. They generate content and cross sell it better than anybody else out there.

(A Top Pick March 10/15. Down 12.76%.) Just bought more today. A wonderful company. It has Star Wars and there are going to be more Star Wars. Being criticized by analysts who have never run a company themselves. Bob Iger bought the Lucas Film franchise for $4 billion, and the 1^st movie he put out generated $1.5 billion in profit. This is the most sophisticated company in the media business in the world. It is not just about ESPN or Star Wars. Theme park business revenues were up 15% this last quarter. Their theme parks in China are opening up. Their movie business is hugely profitable.

Had owned this in the past. Reporting tonight and people will be closely watching to see the earnings. There is a lot of concern around the ESPN numbers. There are a couple of indicators that the US media sector may slow down. A great management team that has allocated capital exceptionally well. Thinks there will be a bit of an uplift from the Star Wars numbers.

Reported after the close and the numbers were really strong on the back of Star Wars, but the market is kind of fixated on their cable networks and ESPN. The company feels this is quite manageable and are very aware of the transitions they eventually have to make. Studio Entertainment is doing very well and their Star Wars trilogy is just starting. This will spread to their studio parks and consumer products. Also, Shanghai Disney opens up later this year, and she expects really good things from that.

A great brand and a great business. They are making money in several different ways. His favourite part in their business is probably ESPN. That side doesn’t seem to get as much attention as it should. If you bought this at any time in the last 4 years, you have done really well. He is bullish on the US consumer, but is less excited about them than he was a year ago. Doesn’t think you will go wrong with this name, but wouldn’t be loading up on it at these levels.

Media companies have been absolutely slammed. People are worried about cord cutting and valuations. He would love to own this company, and at $93 it is looking pretty attractive. You are probably going to see some consolidation in the media space. You could be a buyer here, and 3-4 years out you are going to be a very happy investor.

This reached his FMV as well as a major technical resistance point, and the stock is setting back. His target would be $77-$80 before he would be interested.

Had almost made this a Top pick tonight. Down for 2 reasons. One is the subscriber growth, ESPN and that concern. The 2^nd is the expectation of ramp up into Star Wars, which has died off. The revision in earnings, because of ESPN, is really only about 2% in earnings over the next 3 years. Thinks it has been exaggerated. This is a great entry point.

45% of their revenue comes from ESPN and ABC. Cord cutting may mean they are left out. He thinks their other businesses will grow and cause this 45% to drop. He would prefer Time Warner if he was going for a media stock.

(A Top Pick Jan 26/15. Up 0.72%.) Had a very good run up into the launch of Star Wars. There are concerns in the near term about ESPN. He exited at higher prices, but likes some of the media space. You’ll just have to wait and see if Disney can turn it around with ESPN.

Has had this for some time and has done well with it. The stock has recently come off because of ESPN being a little bit softer. The Shanghai theme park is going to open in June. With the catalyst of Star Wars and theme parks, they should do quite well. Trading at 17.5X earnings with a double digit growth rate.

At these prices, a great opportunity to pick this up. Star Wars has done very well. That is going to benefit their theme parks as well as consumer products division. It’s a trilogy, so there are 2 more coming further down the road. There has been an overhang because of their ESPN division, where they have contracts with long locked in sports programs. Live sports is the type of media people want to watch and thinks this is very manageable. Another catalyst is that Shanghai Disney is going to open next year, and that will draw a lot of traffic.