Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

(A Top Pick Dec 30/13. Down 27.52%.) He wouldn’t buy at this point, but would wait until there was a further decline in oil prices, which he thinks will probably happen. Every growth oriented portfolio should have a position in this company. Feels this is the best run company in this country. Yield of 9.91%.

Oil tends to pick up from a seasonal basis in February. It can bounce around in January. The big worry here is that people are questioning if they are going to cut the dividend. He would be looking at stepping into this when there is a more solid rebound in the energy sector.

A typical classic seasonal stock. Canadian energy sector, and particularly this stock, tends to have a lot of problems at this time of year. The period of seasonal strength is from the end of January right through until May of each year. At this time of year, the stock goes down. It had a huge recovery last week. It is going to go sideways with all kinds of volatility, but is going to form a nice little base. Take another look at the stock at around the end of January and add to it.

They haven’t cut the dividend yet, but thinks they are probably going to have to at some point. They were paying out almost 100%, even though they have some hedges on. He is not buying in this sector even though it has come down a lot.

Was a market darling for years and years and has been one of the bigger growth names in Canadian shale oil, as opposed to an oil sands company. Terrific track record of growth. Has never been a particularly big fan of it, principally because their growth rate in production has been overshadowed by their growth rate in shares outstanding. In the last couple of years, they have made acquisitions at pretty rich valuations. Has dropped from the $40 range, down to the low $20s. If you own, he wouldn’t Sell. Not as over levered as some other players. Has about 40% of its production hedged in the $90’s.

From what he understands, this is hedged at a much higher level, from a total production standpoint, than what most other firms are. He understands it could be north of 50% of their production that is hedged. The obvious issue is that once those hedges roll off, they are going to be realizing lower prices. Everyone is trying to play leapfrog and get ahead of everyone else by selling before those hedges come off and the cash flow drops down. Very well-managed company. Management has said that if lower prices continue, they will protect their balance sheet rather than protect their dividends.

Company has said they are not going to cut their dividend and she doesn’t think they have to unless energy prices stay below $60 for a number of years. They have hedged out some of their production, about 60% in the 4^th quarter, at $92, and 37% of next year’s production at the same price level. They never cut their dividend, even in the recession of 2008. Management is very cognizant that their shareholder base wants that yield. Yielding around 11%, so the market is indicating they believe otherwise.

Near term, the dividend is fairly safe. They have a decent amount of hedging for next year and the balance sheet is relatively good.

He owns this for yield, so he is not going to Sell it. This company hedged their forward sales and have 40% of next year’s revenues hedged at much higher prices, over $90 on the crude. Because of this your distribution should be okay, unless something from left field comes in. His view now is to Hold and see what happens. Very good management.

Thinks this has gotten beaten up too much. They operate in Saskatchewan and in North Dakota. Super operators. Have been very adamant in the past about protecting their dividend when prices went down. He is betting that you will see the price of oil back into the $75-$80 range within 6 months. Yield of 10.34%.

Great stock, but terrible recently. One of the better capitalized and better run companies. There will be lot of time to pick these up later.

A well-managed company. They have a good discipline of maintaining capital frugalness. They pay dividends and they make acquisitions and they invest in their own properties. The issue here is, how long will oil prices stay low. He doesn’t think this is a long-term bubble that makes sense.

A lot of people and the market are forgetting that this company have really good hedges on. 33% is hedged at $93 for next year, about 25% hedged in the $90’s for 2016 and 15% hedged in the $90’s in 2017. Has almost a 10% yield now. His numbers show that oil would have to stay in the low $50’s before the dividend is in jeopardy. 9.5% dividend yield, which he thinks is safe.

(Top Pick Nov 04/13, Down 23.98%) You could see the momentum drying up in this stock just before he sold it. They disenchanted their major US investor. The average US investor puts 0 value on their dividend. They have a pretty good hedge position of 33% for 2015, so the dividend is pretty sustainable through 2015. As the price of oil falls it is getting more and more tempting.

He is scared of companies that have high dividends, and where shareholders are dependent on the dividends. When you combine a commodity price, a lot of leverage and a lot of volatility, this is an accident waiting to happen.