Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

It has done very well in the last 30 days, outperforming many of the old ex-income trusts in the energy sector. They will continue to pull back cap-x. When oil prices go over $65 you will see more invigorated growth.

Bottoms about now and goes higher right through until the beginning of May. It has formed a base and broke out last week. Crude bottoms at the beginning of February and then breaks out.

One that has consistently grown and consistently paid a dividend. He is not too concerned about the dividend. They have a good balance sheet. He would wait to buy this, but would definitely not sell it. His company has this in a Sector Outperform with a $47 target.

Company has dug in its heels and said it will maintain its dividend. A fair amount of this and next year’s production is pre-sold. If pricing stays where it is for another 3 to 4 months he might start to worry about the dividend. He is not selling, but watching it closely. It is one of the best managed oil companies.

A higher-quality name. Have announced they are not going to decrease their dividend for the time being. Right now you are getting about a 9.5% dividend.

There isn’t any evidence that we have reached any sort of stability in oil prices. There have been a couple of days where there has been less decline, but that sentiment can change very quickly. He has been bearish on energy for 4 years. If looking for an entry point, he would wait. This is one of the higher-quality names. If this energy weakness continues, even names like this will be at risk of cutting their dividends.

Has had an interesting record. Coming out of 2008, spot prices got down to the mid-$30 a barrel range, and this company was able to maintain its dividend at that point. Currently they are on track to maintain their dividend through this cycle, but it all depends on how fast the oil price comes back. He feels this company has built itself as good as one can in terms of a conservative balance sheet, good properties and a propensity to work hard at maintaining the dividend. This is about as good as you are going to get in terms of dividend sustainability in a light oil producer in Canada. There might be another buying opportunity for you in the next few months.

Came out last week and cut their CapX spending by 28% and indicated that the dividend was safe. They hadn’t cut their dividend even in the 2008 recession, so they are very cognizant of the fact that they have a shareholder base that needs the income. She expects they will continue to cut CapX to maintain the dividend. Have a very active hedging program in place and about half their 2015 production is hedged at $90 Cdn, which is going to moderate lower spot prices. Unless crude stays at $45-$50 for the balance of the year, she doesn’t anticipate that they will have to touch the dividend.

He does not think it is the time to buy any oil or gas stock. He has it in income accounts. They say their dividend is safe. They are the most hedged oil and gas company in Canada. Over half is hedged above $90. That doesn’t tell him what happens next year. It is one of the well capitalized names that he would look at it he was going to buy energy.

Pretty compelling value if you have a longer-term time horizon. Doesn’t think the dividend is necessarily at risk, unless oil stays right where it is. He views the current decline as being somewhat transitory in nature and thinks the commodity price will go back up. Companies like this, that are relatively well capitalized, should benefit as the commodity price rebounds. Operationally, they have done a very good job of diversifying their business. In hindsight, the acquisitions they made were a little bit expensive, but they do have hedges in place that hopefully will stabilize the balance sheet and be able to push them through 2015 until you see the commodity price go up.

He would have liked to have seen it hold the level at $35. The fact that it didn’t is telling him that it isn’t going to get above that level and will be spending a lot of time doing some basing. His data also indicates that it wants to drop below its low and come back to the $18-$20 range. He would continue to watch it. If it does get above the $35 level, that will become its new support.

(He has some positions in some small accounts.) An extremely well-run and well-managed company. The properties they bought give them drilling opportunities going forward for a number of years. With prices coming off as severely as they have recently, they have cut back on their capital expenditure plans from about $2 billion to $1.5 billion. Exited 2014 at about 145,000 barrels a day and are expected to average about that amount this year, which would be an increase over 2014. If the environment is still as bad as it is in 6 months, they would have to take a look at the dividend. If there was a turn around in commodity prices, this company would really benefit.

Today they announced they are cutting its capital expenditure program, but maintaining its dividend. The key for all names that have high CapX and are returning money to shareholders, is how long that energy stays down. If crude stays down longer than 12 weeks, then we are going to have some problems. If we go into March and we still have these low prices, then we are going to start to have problems. Market is not worried about crude being down now, but for how long it is going to be down. He would be very careful on this.

He likes the energy sector, big picture. It is a no brainer investment over the next 5 to 10 years. But it is going to be a tough year until we get stabilization. He thinks a lot of the bad news is priced in. He does not think an oil price at $30 is justified. Supply and demand fundamentals should create a bottom here. This is where you want to be a buyer, not a seller. There is some risk, however, that the dividend could get cut.

Thinks the dividend is okay and sustainable. One of the things this company has done really well is that they have the best properties around. A fantastic management team. The problem they have is that it is a growth and income oriented vehicle. Where is the growth component, is it really going to be there in this low commodity priced environment? 10% yield.