Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO)

It needs a lot of capital to maintain its production. They have to spend a lot of money to stand still and the dividend takes a lot to sustain. They have built a pretty good foot print and he has to give them credit for that.

He is not bullish on oils in general, and is underweight. This whole OPEC agreement just doesn’t do it for him. They always cheat. The biggest winner in this, is US shale. This company is probably one of the better valuations in the sector. Costs are down. They have a good land base to drill on going forward. One of the better cash generators, and this is a good valuation. He has taken a little bit of money off the table on this.

So much depends on how far you think oil can go. He is optimistic and thinks the price is going to go up. If you buy it here, he thinks you can make money. They manufacture oil as opposed to searching for it. It has a good yield. Thinks it is going to go into the low to mid $20s in the next up move, presuming oil goes to $55-$60.

If this company meets all of its expectations, it is not too bad. He sees projections of cash flow somewhere near $5, 2-3 years out. If they achieve that, then you could certainly justify the current valuation. It has always had tremendous properties, of which they have been fairly successful at maturing. However, they continued paying a ridiculous dividend for many, many years, which was largely financed by their DRIP plan. They don’t do that anymore. Trading at over 4X BV, whereas at one time it used to be trading at 2X. Still a bit rich for him.

There is tremendous positive hidden leverage. They have an inventory of 8000 wells that will keep them going for 12 years. They have applied water flood very successfully. (Analysts’ Target: $23.40).

All energy companies have restructured to a lower crude oil price. If crude stays in the $55 area, this company should be okay. They’ve raised some equity to fund their CapX program, and are applying some new technology to their oil wells with some positive results. If crude oil stabilizes, the stock price should slowly climb.

Has been a disappointing performer this year. The bright side is, you have an opportunity to buy this at a valuation that is almost at a historical low. They have an enormous depth of inventory. The well results from their US holdings is very encouraging. They are doing some very novel things in terms of water flood. Have cut drilling times from 8 days to 5 days in a year in the Bakken. Sentiment has been poor for them. This would be a buying opportunity for a long-term holder.

This has been a disappointment. The stock went up to $23-$24, and backed off to the low $20, and then into the high teens. They then came out with a huge equity issue, which absolutely killed the market, and is still sort of recovering from that. He still likes it. One of the best managed intermediate oil companies in Canada. They are in the Bakken area where they can actually produce oil and make money at $50. Close enough to the US where they have good pipeline access. That is going to improve. This would still be his choice in the market. Dividend yield of 2.09%.

Had been paying out way too much in distribution to shareholders. People bought it for the dividend, and then the company cut the distribution. At these prices, everybody in that sector is having trouble making money. This is not a low-cost producer. He would recommend that you look for stronger businesses.

He just started going through their numbers again, because the company sold off significantly. People used to buy this because of the great dividend, which has now come down to about a 2% yield. Because of that, they lost a lot of dividend type investors. It is unfair to the company, because they are operating within their cash flow. They have great low cost assets in south central Saskatchewan. He likes management. Having come down to $15, he is looking at buying it.

Has held a very small position in this, but hasn’t been adding to it for the last couple of years. It is going to be predicated on what oil prices do going forward. This, along with the other oil producers, have cut capital spending. They’ve raised some equity to shore up their balance sheet and to make sure they can fund the capital in exploration activities that they want to do.

One of Canada’s largest energy companies, doing a great job of acquisitions. They are in some very good places. They are sensitive to the price of oil and they are acquisition-driven. People worried about the leverage with declining commodity prices, which are now finding a bottom. They are in the penalty box, but management will work their way through this. It is probably fairly valued, but could benefit from some macro events coming.

(A Top Pick Nov 10/15. Down 16.48%.) This has been a difficult holding. In commodity purchases, he tries to look at the asset value, and that carrying the day. This company continues to execute flawlessly. In a conventional oil company, you are looking for inventory, and this is a company that has done a good job in amassing a great deal of inventory while maintaining a clean balance sheet. They cut their dividend and said they were going to pursue organic growth, and then did an equity issue in the fall which really caused some management credibility issues. Trading at a discount to peers and has much better asset qualities. There is probably a good margin of safety on this now.

They normally issue for acquisitions that are accretive. But you always get all this stock coming at you. They got the message in the spring. And then in the last little while they issued stock again. They did it only for the balance sheet but he thinks they shot themselves in the foot. We need a couple of quarters of decent earnings and cash flow growth.

(Market Call Minute.) There are others he would prefer.