Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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140 watching

TOP PICK

Chopped distributions from $1.25 to $.15 in the last 2 quarters. Have always been prudent with payouts. Profitable at $40 a barrel so if oil goes higher, it should do very well. 2.8% yield.

TOP PICK

Cut distributions recently by about 80% so this should position it very well to take advantage of a doubling of oil prices this year.

BUY

Made a distribution cut but markets had sold off in anticipation of this. Story is still intact. Gives great exposure to oil when and if prices recover.

WAIT

There was negative anticipation of a really bad earnings report and just had an 80% distribution cut. Once the bad news was out of the way, the stock got hot. There are indications the stock is trying to bottom. Should be good when crude oil prices start to break above resistance at the $50 level.

DON'T BUY

Not a fan of energy right now. Cut their distribution, which could lead to others doing the same. There are better names.

COMMENT

Sold his holdings because of concerns about the sustainability of distributions. Although the long-term asset is good, in this pricing environment there is a significant possibility of a cut, which may already be factored into the price.

DON'T BUY

Distribution is going to be dependent on what happens to the price of oil. Likes the oil sands longer term. Well run. Reasonable possibility of another distribution cut.

COMMENT

Biggest owners of Syncrude and the oil sands assets in the long-term are valuable. In the longer-term, oil has to be closer to $100 then it's present cost. In the current environment, it is possible they could cut their distribution to zero. If you are able to hold through the next 2 to 5 years you should do quite well.

DON'T BUY

Sold this when it looked like they were going to cut their distributions. Looks like they may have to do this again. Thinks there will be an opportunity to re-buy at a lower price.

COMMENT

Doesn't have a lot of tax pools. Own about 37% of the Syncrude project. If not taken out, they will be taxed at a high rate. Have diversified a little with some natural gas in the Arctic. If oil prices stay at this level, he is expecting a distribution cut.

BUY

US is going to want the Canadian oil sands. Mexico is running out of oil. By 2012, Temex (?) has already said that they won't be able to sell the US any oil.

DON'T BUY

Got caught in the oil selloff. Cut the distribution a while back. Well run company. At $40-$50 oil, extraction costs are pretty close to what it costs to produce. There is also the problem of their conversion back to a corporation by 2011.

DON'T BUY

If energy stocks rally, this one will probably do so also. A lot of people owned it for distributions but if oil prices stayed at $50 distribution would probably drop significantly. Relatively high cost producer.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) If you like oil sands, this is the one to buy. Has some good potential. Will probably go up another $3 or $4 from here.

BUY

Believes oil will go higher in this trust gives you direct leverage to oil prices. Trades at a 40% to 50% discount to its NAV. Shouldn't see much more downside.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)