Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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COMMENT

Has the largest part of the Syncrude Oil Sands project. Doesn't have a lot of capital expenditures in front of it, which he likes. A little bit of debt that they are paying down. Distribution is relatively safe. Very expensive relative to its peers. From a longer-term perspective, this represents a huge resource. This is one you would keep and sock away in your portfolio and leave for quite a while.

BUY

Very bullish on energy and oil in particular. This one is a mature company with no start-up risks.

COMMENT

This is a pure call on the price of oil. From a growth perspective he would look at other companies. This is a fine company but a little bit expensive when compared to its peers.

BUY

Obama looking at increasing taxes paid by companies that are creating more carbon emissions. This would impact oil coming from Canadian oil sands. However there are lots of other markets. Oil is the safer play. COS.UN is a pure oil play, vs. BNP.UN

HOLD

(Market Call Minute) Would like to see more support.

TOP PICK

Has had a nice run so he essentially is recommending it as a takeout potential. One company that is screaming to get into the oil sands is Exxon Mobile.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) You could step into this one at these levels.

BUY

You buy this if you believe in the oil sands concept for the next 10, 15 to 20 years. A great way to get paid while waiting. Good company.

BUY

A pure oil sands play. ROE decline is there which bothers him but the yield curve is good in terms of payout ratio and debt cash flow coverage.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) This will be one of the big players. An industry that needs a lot of capital and they have it.

TOP PICK

Now that Suncor’s (SU-T) composition has changed this is the premier way to play oil sands. Has significant distribution upside as oil recovers back to $75. Well-run operation. No immediate capital spending plans for 2009 and very little in 2010. Long-term asset. 2.3% distribution.

TOP PICK

One of the biggest oil companies in Canada and he thinks institutional money will come in. Should have a good rebound in the next couple of months. Expecting distributions to increase as oil prices firm up.

DON'T BUY

A bet on a company that is highly leveraged to the price of energy. At $40 a barrel, oil sands is hard pressed to make very much in the way of money. If you think oil is going to go back to $75 (which would take something extraordinary) you will get more bang for your buck because production cost is higher.

DON'T BUY

Would look at Suncor (SU-T) in terms of being the leader in environmental reporting and practices. This one is on his disqualified list.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Given his longer-term view on oil prices, it is a Buy today.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)