Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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DON'T BUY

Dividend fluctuates on cash flow and at $40 oil they are going to have to cut the distribution. At $60 oil you might be looking at a $.50 distribution and at $40 oil you might be looking at $.10. (Sold his holdings recently.)

BUY

Based on $50US oil, they projected cash flow per unit of $1.80. Currently distributing $3, which would indicate there could be a 40% cut if oil stays at $50. Thinks oil will be $75 and $3 distribution would be sustainable. 15.2% yield.

COMMENT

To make oil sands worthwhile you need at least $75 a barrel for oil.

BUY

Entirely possible that oil prices could go lower. Trading at 5.3X earnings. 15% yield. Could weather the storm over the next 6 to 9 months.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Best screened stock that he has.

COMMENT

If seriously interested in this, he would suggest you scale in. Buy a little bit at $20 and a little more if it goes lower, etc. Distributions should offset this.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Not a lot of upside, but does believe oil goes higher and this is a direct leverage to that.

DON'T BUY

13% yield. The longer that oil stays down or goes lower, the more risk there is on distributions. His exposure in oils is almost all in Integrateds. Would avoid heavy oil stocks.

BUY

Has no idea where oil is going to go. We are way below production costs of oil, so probability says that oil should go up. Excellent asset. Longer-term it should be good but don't buy it for short-term reasons.

WAIT

Will probably have to cut their distribution one more time. Would wait until they do that. Expect that will be early next year. (Jan 30/09 is when they report.

COMMENT

Highly correlated to the price of oil. 35-40 year reserve life. Recently came to an agreement with the Alberta government regarding royalties.

BUY

Very oil levered. Oil sands production tends to be higher cost but it is well managed. It really comes down to your call on oil. Looking globally, the best reserves continue to be in the oil sands. This should continue to do very well.

COMMENT

Great company. Cash generating machine with very low cost per barrel. Steady play with a pretty good dividend. Will benefit from higher crude oil prices.

SELL

(Market Call Minute.)Because of what is happening in the price of oil, you are going to see some significant distribution cuts.

BUY

19% yield. Never buy a high yielding company if you can't check the profit growth profile and make sure it is rising. Whole energy area is going to show some weakness in the next several months. This one is starting in a very strong position. Has a 37% ROE. Small likelihood they cut the yield but if so they will still have a higher than average yield going forward. Very cheap at under 9X earnings.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)