Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

0.00

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140 watching

SELL

Any time he has inherited this stock he has exited. Sees them as requiring major capital to develop further. Not sure if dividend is sustainable and they have cut it in the past.

SELL

(Market Call Minute) Not getting WTI pricing so big discount.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) This is a long-term buy. Loves the oil sands.

COMMENT

Stock has gone nowhere. Valuation of most oil companies has gone nowhere, even though the quoted price of oil has been quite high. Most of the problem for the Canadian oil companies is that they are not realizing the price that you see quoted. There is a glut of oil in the mid-US that can’t get delivered to the refineries and there is a glut of oil in Canada that can't get down.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 4/11. Down 27.92%.) Sold his holdings at about an 8% loss.

DON'T BUY

Not a fan because he could see a lot of capital required. However, they came up with some reasonable numbers and they kicked their dividend up. He still has doubts if the dividend is sustainable. Not enthused about pure oil sands production. Would prefer others.

HOLD

Has been caught up in a lot of the controversy about the development of the oil sands. Retreat has probably been somewhat political. Cost escalations in oil sands development has been going up significantly. Long-term holders should do okay with this stock. Nice yield of 5.6%, will probably continue for some time.

COMMENT

A lot of Canadian oil companies are being picked away just for the long-term life of their reserves. This one pays a little bit of a dividend, which is the only reason he owns it. He would rather have the ones with higher dividends.

DON'T BUY

If he is going to be involved in the oil sands business, he wants to be in the best in class. Imperial Oil (IMO-T) is the best in class and lowest cost and he recently got out of Imperial Oil.

DON'T BUY

Lots of depreciation so look at cash flows not EPS when judging sustainability of dividend. You have huge project exposure with this one. This is not his type of resource stock because it is one resource – huge equity stake in Syncrude. Look for companies in a multitude of locations. Prefers Vermilion or Freehold.

BUY

Chart shows it is into support in the latter part of 2011 and the current year. It hasn't taken out the low of 2011, which is positive. Will probably run back up to the upper trading range. If it gets above $23, it should have a decent rally.

COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) Highly tied to the price of oil. If you think oil is going higher then it is a Buy.

COMMENT

Over the next 3-4 years? If you are looking out 3-4 years, he would guess oil prices would be over $100. His concern is that to be a buyer right now, the stocks get hit hard as this oil is higher cost with $60 breakeven. If you hold for 3-4 years, you will eventually do very well.

BUY

Down 25%. He has said before that it is good value. Could be environmental issues. He thinks it is good value. But there may be factors related to development of oil sands.

DON'T BUY

This is not a good time to buy this company. There have been some shut-ins on some of their production. Also, they are required to come up with a fair amount of capital in the next little while. When this has happened in the past, they have cut their payout.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)