Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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HOLD

Largest owner of Sincrude, which is largest player in oil sands. Has a lot of capital expenditures on maintenance and expansion. Questions if they will continue to pay the dividend if oil goes down, but it is safe for now. Likes the long-term outlook on oil sands but will hold it.

DON'T BUY

Got stopped out of this stock at around $24 in August. Expectations of earnings are declining. Not sure oil prices can be sustained at the current prices. There have been larger than expected CapX costs. Technically below the 52 and 200 day moving averages.

DON'T BUY

Own a big stake in the oil sands Syncrude project but don't control operations, which has been pretty weak up until about a couple of years ago. Getting better, but even with the high oil prices have spent all their money on CapX so there is not a lot of room for dividend increases. There are better places to be. (See Top Picks.)

BUY

Attractive valuation and pays a good dividend. Expect oil Sands stocks will have some cost pressures as they expand production. Feels oil prices will be $90-$100 for the next 10 years.

COMMENT

A solid way of participating in the oil patch but he prefers the mid tier ones that offer greater production and a better yield.

STRONG BUY

Equities are saying that oil prices are not going to stay in the mid-$90's. He believes oil will stay reasonably high, 1) partly because you need high oil prices to keep it getting discovered and 2) Asian demand is growing 15%. A screaming bargain at $20.

DON'T BUY

High-cost producer. There is some question as to whether they are going to have to invest more money to develop their assets more. Not a growth story. If, down the road, the US does not need all our oil, this one is vulnerable.

WAIT

Almost a direct call on the price of oil. It looks expensive to him and there are operational hiccups that could affect production over the next couple of years. Let some of this dust settle before taking a look.

DON'T BUY

Prefers Suncor. COS is a pure oil sands play. Not a bad yield. There isn’t really any growth.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 6/10. Down 10.39%.) The purest play on oil prices in Canada.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 6/10. Down 10.39%.) The purest play on oil prices in Canada.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 6/10. Down 10.39%.) The purest play on oil prices in Canada.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 6/10. Down 10.39%.) The purest play on oil prices in Canada.

COMMENT

Valuation is kind of compelling. $0.30 dividend would be at risk if oil went down to $70. A “no growth” story for the next decade.

DON'T BUY

They need $60 - $65 oil barrel to break even. Thinks the dividend is sustainable at $80, but less so if the price comes down to $70 There are other more defensive plays in the oil patch. Ok for a long term play though.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)