Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)

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COMMENT

(Market Call Minute.) As long as you believe in $95 oil, the dividend is safe.

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HOLD

Holds a lot of this for his income oriented clients. Levered to the price of oil. Not his favourite on the growth side.

COMMENT

Longer-term, he likes the outlook for oil sands. Yield is over 6% and given their current earnings power, that is pretty high. Doesn’t expect they will have to reduce that. Good growth profile. Last quarter was mixed with lower royalties but got higher prices. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

Probably the purest play to the price of oil in Canada. If you are bullish on the price of oil, this would be your name. He doesn’t see a significant improvement in oil prices from here. Can’t see how it can continue be dividend/investor friendly and initiate some of the expenditures that they need to do. 6.3% dividend.

DON'T BUY

Doesn’t like this one. It has the highest payout ratio. No growth because all it owns is a piece of Syncrude. (See Top Picks.)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Would not see it taken out. $19 is a good level to buy.

DON'T BUY

Have had production issues and has been a very disappointing investment over the last while. Have terrific assets and are trying to grow production. Unlike Suncor (SU-T) or Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T), you are not going to see any real meaningful production over the next 2-3 years.

DON'T BUY

(Mark Call Minute.) Okay for trade but there are a lot of cost pressures. They have to invest a lot more money to be able to maintain their production.

DON'T BUY

Lower oil price environment reduces the cash flow potential and he feels they need over $100 oil. He is concerned about the high dividend of over 7% and how the company is going to bridge both dividend payments and capital expenditures over the next couple of years.

DON'T BUY

Doesn’t like it. The yield is there but there is no growth. It is Syncrude only. Payout is getting pretty high. Prefers one of his top picks. If you like the oils sands, get SU. Currently he doesn’t actually hold senior oil companies.

PARTIAL BUY

Buying for a long-term hold, stripping the dividends and hoping oil gets back over $100 and Keystone gets built? This is a good idea. A prudent approach if you are willing to look past the next 6-12 months and willing to live with some short-term volatility and stagger in your investment.

HOLD

Biggest owner of Syncrude, which is in a strong growth phase and at $79 West Texas oil, they are not making a lot of money. Stock hasn't been a good performer of late and a lot of that has to do with the price of oil coming down recently. Not sure that the 7.5% dividend at its current level will be protected.

DON'T BUY

Recent increase in dividend surprised him. Not a company he is looking to add to his portfolio. Doesn’t think you will get much growth for the balance of the decade. Prefers CNQ, CVE.

HOLD

As oil prices have come down, the differential has widened so it has been a bit of a double whammy. However, differentials will increase again when we get some pipelines built.

DON'T BUY

They're the biggest holder of Syncrude. In the current commodity price and their spending plan over the next couple of years, the dividend is tight and there is a chance that they might have to cut it if the oil price continues being low. There are better values in the oil sands sector but if you have a long-term time horizon, 5-10 years, it will go higher. Not a preferred name.

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Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO)