Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO) Buy, Sell or…

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Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

78.42

+1.37 (1.78%)

as of Oct 30, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Closed.

1410 watching

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It got down t $30. If it goes back down below $32 he would get it.

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DON'T BUY

Oil was down today, and so did CNQ. They won't run out of their product, oil, but they're at the mercy of the price of oil which they can't control. He owns zero Canadian energy.

WEAK BUY

FTS-T vs. CNQ-T. FTS-T is a yielding situation with a big a growth. CNQ-T is one of the best oil and gas companies in Western Canada. They are both viable.

DON'T BUY

They are bringing on more production, but don't have marketing and refinement. This and SU-T are the two large caps everyone runs to when they want to own energy. He thinks you need egress issues resolved before investing.

COMMENT

CNQ-T vs. SU-T. It depends on your appetite for volatility and your expectations for returns. CNQ-T is a bet on oil. SU-T is more defensive but with less upside if you get the timing right on the price of oil. SU-T has a good opportunity to step in.

COMMENT

One of the best operators in Canada. As long as the price of crude is above $60 is going to be fine. Canada has a severe problem. We are not a country, we are a bunch of people with different interests. We can't build things. The energy business is a tough business. A quality company. Generates huge free cash flow. He prefers Cenovus Energy (CVE-T) that has more leverage and as it has a cheaper valuation. It could be a potential target for CNQ to buy at about a 30% premium.

TOP PICK

One of the best producers in this sector. They'll weather the financial storm and pay you a 3.8% dividend to wait. They can moderate their capex to a degree that other companies can't. They can scale back their capex or build it up. Flexibile. Resilient. (Analysts’ price target is $51.28)

COMMENT

Their Q3 beat the street and they're buying back shares. Bad news is they're lowering production--flat growth in coming years. Debt-to-cash flow is 2.3x which is fine. Dividend safe. But if WTI keeps falling, it'll hurt CNQ. Oil prices are manipulated by OPEC, Russia and Trump. CNQ is great at $60-70 WTI.

BUY

If you want more oilsands, less debt and more valuation, go with Suncor. CNQ is less oilsands, slightly more debt, and slightly less valuation. Both are on watch list. They will have tremendous free cash flows in the coming years as the oil differentials tighten. Both are low cost operators. Both are good buys, but would slightly prefer CNQ.

DON'T BUY

He remains negative on the Canadian oil space. He has a model price of $51.14 and hopes this price level holds, but expects further downside that could reach towards $29.30. WCS is netting only $17 US per barrel.

HOLD

Energy is a big long-term cyclical. He is not bullish on energy long-term with a lot of new potential supply. One of the better companies and it is fine to hold. One of the most secure holdings in the sector with a good track record.

DON'T BUY

His favourite Canadian oil producer, but he sold all his oil producers six months ago, because Canadians can't get world prices for oil. He bought U.S. producers instead, because they get that world price. Canadians have failed to
build pipelines. There will come a time when we will have pipelines, but that time looks far off.

SELL

He sold a month ago because it declined below moving averages. The spread between heavy and light oil is significant, as is Canadian oil prices vs. world prices. It is a challenge for a lot of Canadian oil and gas companies.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 14/17 Up 17%) He thinks this will easily get back to $55 per share. The company is pushing out $5 billion in cash flow per year now. It is now over 1 million barrels per day in production and is already targeting 1.3 million per day. They could be one of only 2 or 3 companies who might dominate the space.

TOP PICK

He expects heavy oil differentials will normalize soon. This company is building a free cash flow machine as costs are falling and revenue is increasing. Yield 3.1%. (Analysts’ price target is 57.34)

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Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)