TSE:CNQ

Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

70.08
-1.62 (2.26%)
as of Sep 16, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.
1408 watching
0
WEAK BUY
Owned it for a long time until he exited oil two years ago. This is a bet on the oil complex working, which he expects to eventually in 2020. It's a high-quality company with a safe dividend.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 12/18, Up 1%) They have great free cash flow and it remains a Top Pick for him.
TOP PICK
Their capex spending is largely behind them now and they should become a cash flow producing machine. Analysts are saying the decline rates in new US Permian production exceed 30% per annum, making CNQ long life reserves (of 50 years) more valuable. He expects another dividend increase next week. He hopes they don't step out to buy the Devon Jackfish assets. Yield 3.54% (Analysts’ price target is $45.03)
DON'T BUY
It is the best of the Canadian oil stocks in terms of safety and size. They have got into upgrading and refining of oil in the last few years. This is a great way to play energy but he is not enamored with the industry right now. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
BUY
He just bought last week. He really likes this name. Seasonality is just kicking in now. He wants to see these energy names really start to accelerate. It is a seasonal trade. It will run into resistance at $40 at the end of the spring. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 26/18, Down 4%) A lean and mean operation. He believes in it. It comes down to oil prices, which have fallen. But he expects oil to rise in the next 12-18 months and CNQ will benefit.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It got down t $30. If it goes back down below $32 he would get it.
DON'T BUY
Oil was down today, and so did CNQ. They won't run out of their product, oil, but they're at the mercy of the price of oil which they can't control. He owns zero Canadian energy.
WEAK BUY
FTS-T vs. CNQ-T. FTS-T is a yielding situation with a big a growth. CNQ-T is one of the best oil and gas companies in Western Canada. They are both viable.
DON'T BUY
They are bringing on more production, but don't have marketing and refinement. This and SU-T are the two large caps everyone runs to when they want to own energy. He thinks you need egress issues resolved before investing.
COMMENT
CNQ-T vs. SU-T. It depends on your appetite for volatility and your expectations for returns. CNQ-T is a bet on oil. SU-T is more defensive but with less upside if you get the timing right on the price of oil. SU-T has a good opportunity to step in.
COMMENT
One of the best operators in Canada. As long as the price of crude is above $60 is going to be fine. Canada has a severe problem. We are not a country, we are a bunch of people with different interests. We can't build things. The energy business is a tough business. A quality company. Generates huge free cash flow. He prefers Cenovus Energy (CVE-T) that has more leverage and as it has a cheaper valuation. It could be a potential target for CNQ to buy at about a 30% premium.
TOP PICK
One of the best producers in this sector. They'll weather the financial storm and pay you a 3.8% dividend to wait. They can moderate their capex to a degree that other companies can't. They can scale back their capex or build it up. Flexibile. Resilient. (Analysts’ price target is $51.28)
COMMENT
Their Q3 beat the street and they're buying back shares. Bad news is they're lowering production--flat growth in coming years. Debt-to-cash flow is 2.3x which is fine. Dividend safe. But if WTI keeps falling, it'll hurt CNQ. Oil prices are manipulated by OPEC, Russia and Trump. CNQ is great at $60-70 WTI.
BUY
If you want more oilsands, less debt and more valuation, go with Suncor. CNQ is less oilsands, slightly more debt, and slightly less valuation. Both are on watch list. They will have tremendous free cash flows in the coming years as the oil differentials tighten. Both are low cost operators. Both are good buys, but would slightly prefer CNQ.
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