
NYSE:BAC
All the US banks are going to work in tandem over time. Some are more senior in terms of their structure and it shows in their valuations. The street is a bit worried the fed will not increase rates at the pace they thought. The market is not as confident in this one as it has some more senior issues.
A huge retail bank, and also very much a capital markets bank. They will get some benefits from rising rates. The capital markets business, for him, is a kind of questionable business so he is avoiding that sector at the present time. They have international exposure, and the strong US$ is going to hurt them to some degree. He wouldn’t be initiating a position today.
(Top Pick Feb 18/15, Up 7.55%) Consumer credit started growing again. But it took all the way to December for the Fed to lift rates and it is hard for them to make money on widening spreads when interest rates are not increasing and they run a spread business. He thinks earnings will accelerate with increasing rates.
One of their senior people said that for every 1 point increase in interest rates, they are going to make about $4.5 billion, which works out to about a $5 per share potential increase in stock price using an 11X multiple. The catalyst for growth in US banks is loan growth and a steepening yield curve. Also litigation costs are starting to drain out and getting much more manageable.
This still has the legacy of the Countryside assets from the 2008 mortgage scandals. It also has Merrill Lynch, so it is seen as a lesser quality name then Wells Fargo (WFC-N). Citigroup (C-N) has 55% of revenue coming from outside of the US, which has caused some concerns. Historically, when there is a rally, it is the financials that lead the market out. He thinks that when the dust settles, these will be good names.