Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) Buy, Sell or Hold

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)

100.36

-1.14 (1.12%)

as of Nov 3, 2026, 9:00:00 pm Market Closed.

565 watching

PARTIAL BUY

Two-year outlook? He doesn't do two-years. He invests long, like Buffet. The US-China trade war is on, and tech stocks are under pressure. Those are two headwinds. And if interest rates continue to rise, we'll walk into a recession. Tech stocks have high beta, so don't buy them; too much volatility. Buy half a position in BABA and see what happens.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Average down? It depends on your risk tolerance and how much you already own. BABA wins over time. It's still now that expensive vs. its growth rate. Q2 was in line as revenues grew 25% YOY. Commercial revenue was up 31%. They did offer a slowdown in their guidance due to overall China slowdown--and that's why the stock has dipped. He expects a strong growth rate in 2019. Be patient. Good fundamentals.

DON'T BUY

Their story is not going away. The concept is very good. But the valuation is too high. With a P/E of 49 the valuation has to compress.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 12/17, Down 16%) It's had some tough times recently, but it's cheap at 26x forward earnings with a 25% growth rate, unless China falls into a downturn via US tariffs. Has fallen below its 200-days moving average. Long-term, though, it's great to own. Expects $250 billion in revenues this year, more than Amazon.

WAIT

If it pulls back and then brake outs it would be very positive. He wouldn't buy it today but would buy it a week or two form now if it continues to loo constructive.

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick Aug. 22, 2018, Down 17%) He'd still buy it. Their topline revenues is growing 62% and accelerating and doubling his expecations. True, the stock is down 30% YTD. These things happen in tech stocks which will have structural pullbacks. Look at Apple in 2006.

STRONG BUY

He sees it at $4.50 earnings per share – trading at 27 times earnings. It has traded back to $156, his target, and would see it as a buy. (Analysts’ price target is $220)

DON'T BUY

Chinese economy has slowed down. Chinese techs have fallen because of valuations, momentum fell off, and earnings. Use a gambling strategy, when you double your money, take half off the table. Always think about this for companies that don’t pay dividends. BABA is still a concept stock. They’ve gone too far, too fast.

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COMMENT

Stock has come off when CEO Jack Ma left. A big issue is how they grow outside China--can they do it? Valuation isn't cheap, but they are strong in China along with a growing middle class. They will do well long-term there.

DON'T BUY

The last quarterly earnings report was a bit of a miss. He is concerned about the flow of liquidity on this one as there is a bit of a leap of faith on this. This is a huge momentum name and now that investors may be getting a little nervous there is risk of this falling further.

DON'T BUY

All tech stocks have come off, Alibaba's valuation was always excessive, and Jack Ma has stepped down so who will step in? She's looking at other tech stocks that have better fundamentals.

DON'T BUY

You'd think this would be a great story in a growth economy, but there's a lot of conflict in the US-China trade talks,
especially in tech. Also, their accounting is mystery. What is their cash generation? Maybe it's accurate, but he can't get comfortable with this.

DON'T BUY

He would be careful investing in any Chinese domiciled company. Just for the transparency. Tough enough to make good decisions in the market with audited financial statements with very strict regulations on reporting. There has been a lot of frauds and problems. Doesn’t have the visibility that makes him comfortable.

COMMENT

He's amazed that tech stocks are off this year. Long-term, BABA has been a great story, but there's been a slowdown in China where the government is tightening lending conditions and only recently is starting to ease this.

BUY

The recent fall is due to China-US trade war, but it's also the reality of doing business in China. Jack Ma has done an amazing job. He still believes in this. Chinese e-commerce is very good. It's trading 30x forward PE, but he thinks that's decreased to 24x.

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Alibaba Group Holding (BABA)